Bitcoin Up 5% on War with Iran?Why bitcoin traded so well today, and how to interpret macro changes on TBL Liquidity. Also exploring when the next buy signal might arrive.
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Dear Readers, War broke out in Iran over the weekend. Oil gapped to $75 on Sunday night futures, up over 10%, volatility opened at multi-month highs, and S&P futures were deep in the red. Gold surged. Every asset class screamed risk-off. And then, within hours, almost all of it reversed. Oil is still up 5% as I write this, but it has come down significantly from those panic levels. Stocks bounced, almost too perfectly, off of a multi-month trendline support in a textbook reversal:
Stocks look shaky indeed, but I thought the price action around this 3+ year trendline was material, at least in the zoomed-in sense:
Gold, which opened dramatically higher, has now sold off more than $100 from its intraday highs, and volatility has pulled back sharply from its opening spike. Bitcoin is up over 5%, but we’ll have to discuss that more specifically after assessing macro. What I observed about the dollar was its unwillingness to reverse its flight-to-safety price action, and that will be a challenge for TBL Liquidity. Our two most sensitive pillars — the MOVE Index (bond volatility) and DXY — are both moving against us. Bond volatility spiked on Friday to its highest level since mid-December. The dollar continues to threaten a sustained bounce higher. Both of those readings are punishing the TBL Liquidity Index, and that is not a friendly environment for risk assets. I want to be direct about the current state of TBL Liquidity: our Indicator flagged a sell signal on January 14, 2026, with Bitcoin above $90,000. That signal remains in effect. A buy signal looks, to be very frank, nowhere on the immediate horizon. On the positive side, the Indicator is cyclical in nature, so mathematically it is guaranteed to turn positive at some point, and given the frequency of buy-to-sell or sell-to-buy changes over the past few years, we estimate that it shouldn’t take more than a couple of months. Before I move on: if you are reading this as a free or newly joined subscriber giving us a trial and you did not receive that January 14 sell signal in real time, it’s time you signed up for our TBL Research Dashboard and email alerts. Our Pro subscribers had that alert weeks before the full crash played out. The next buy signal will come through the same system. ✅ Become a TBL Pro subscriber and get the next signal when it happens💡 Gold and Oil Saw It ComingLet’s step back to last week for a moment, because the gold and oil price action told the story before the headlines did. Gold’s Monday and Friday daily candles last week put the metal in a clearly bullish posture heading into the weekend. Oil’s Friday session showed the same thing — risk of an event was being priced before the event arrived. Both assets were ahead of the military action, sniffing out what the headlines confirmed 48 hours later, first gold:
This is what commodities do when they are functioning properly as geopolitical barometers — the information was in the price before it was on the news. Oil next:... Keep reading with a 7-day free trialSubscribe to The Bitcoin Layer to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives. A subscription gets you:
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Monday, March 2, 2026
Bitcoin Up 5% on War with Iran?
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