Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Positive AgainAlso Bitcoin Volatility Has Spiked Again & No Evidence Of A Labor Market Collapse
Welcome to Ecoinometrics’ Friday edition. Each week, we analyze the three most critical market signals impacting Bitcoin and macro assets, delivering institutional-grade insights through data-driven charts and analysis. Today we’ll cover:
Markets have been volatile this week. Bitcoin pushed back above $70K while macro headlines continue to shift the narrative around risk assets. To get a clearer picture of what is actually changing in the market, we look at three signals that matter right now. In case you missed it, here are the other topics we covered this week:
Get these professional-grade insights delivered to your inbox: Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Positive AgainBitcoin’s rolling ETF flows have been negative almost continuously since November. That persistent demand drain has been one of the main forces behind the bear market we have been tracking over the past few months. Now we are seeing another attempt at a reversal. Rolling flows have just moved back into positive territory. The last time that happened was a little over a month ago. But that breakout only lasted a few days before outflows accelerated again. So the key question now is whether this time is different. It’s worth noting that the recovery in flows actually started before the escalation of the conflict with Iran. And the fact that equity markets have not entered a full risk-off phase has helped Bitcoin avoid giving back those gains. That’s how we ended up with Bitcoin briefly pushing back above $70K this week. But rallies happen all the time during bear markets. What matters is whether they are supported by sustained structural demand. Right now the structural force that matters most is ETF demand. Since the launch of spot ETFs, flows have become the dominant marginal driver of Bitcoin’s price. When capital moves into the funds, price tends to follow. When flows turn negative, Bitcoin usually struggles. That’s why the rolling 30-day flow regime is so important. A single move back above zero does not mean the demand regime has shifted. What we would need to see is persistent inflows over multiple weeks. Our ETF flow simulations in Wednesday’s report still do not show a clear regime change yet. The odds of a demand recovery have improved compared to last month, but they still don’t favour a sustained recovery. So for now, ETF flows remain the key variable to watch.
Bitcoin Volatility Has Spiked AgainIn the big picture, Bitcoin has become significantly less volatile than it was in previous cycles. That is largely the result of the market maturing. Institutional investors now dominate trading activity, and Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a high-beta component of the broader risk-asset universe rather than a niche speculative asset. But lower structural volatility does not mean volatility disappears. It just means spikes become less frequent and less extreme. And right now we are experiencing one of those spikes. The heatmap below shows Bitcoin’s weekly volatility ranked against the past ten years of market history. A week in the 80th percentile means volatility was higher than 80% of all weeks in the sample. For the past four weeks, Bitcoin has been consistently at that threshold. That is the longest streak of elevated volatility since 2023. Now why does this observation matter in the current environment? Well it matters because volatility is the enemy of signal. When price moves too quickly, whether up or down, markets tend to overreact relative to the underlying structural forces driving the trend. During these periods, price swings often say more about positioning and sentiment than about fundamentals. That’s important to keep in mind when looking at Bitcoin’s recent moves. The rebound above $70K might look meaningful at first glance. But in a high-volatility environment, those price swings can simply reflect noise rather than a genuine change in market structure. In fact, most of the recent moves remain broadly consistent with the expected price range implied by ETF flows. Which means the real signal is still the same as what we discuss in the previous section: demand is improving but it is still fragile. So what matters most is not whether Bitcoin briefly trades at $65K or $70K. What matters is whether sustained demand returns to the market.
No Evidence Of A Labor Market CollapseOne of the main reasons the Federal Reserve delivered a few modest rate cuts toward the end of last year was growing concern about the labor market. At the time, the narrative was driven by two things. First, the data. Among other things, continued unemployment claims began to rise, suggesting that people who lost their jobs were taking longer to find new ones. That raised concerns that the labor market might be weakening. Second, the narrative. The hype around AI created a wave of speculation that automation could soon replace large numbers of white-collar jobs. Together, those two forces created the impression that a labor market shock might be underway. But that’s not what actually happened. If you look at the data in the chart below, the spike in continued unemployment claims turned out to be just that, a spike. The increase has now fully faded, and claims are back to roughly the same levels they were averaging a year ago. In other words, the labor market has not collapsed. It has simply normalized after the post-COVID adjustment period. And despite all the headlines about AI replacing workers, there is still very little evidence of that happening at a meaningful scale in the macro data. What this means for markets is straightforward. When the Fed evaluates its dual mandate, it has to balance two risks: inflation running too hot and the labor market weakening too much. Right now the labor side of that equation looks broadly stable. Inflation, however, remains much more uncertain. That shifts the balance of risk toward maintaining a restrictive policy stance rather than rushing into another round of rate cuts. And that matters for Bitcoin and other growth-sensitive assets, because it means monetary policy relief is unlikely to arrive any time soon.
Tactical TakeawayThis week’s data still does not confirm a change in market regime. ETF flows have turned positive again, which is the first necessary condition for a recovery. But a few days of inflows are not enough. What would matter is sustained demand over the coming weeks. At the same time, volatility has surged, which means recent price swings carry very little signal. A move above $70K does not necessarily mean the market has turned. Meanwhile the macro backdrop remains restrictive. With the labor market still stable, the Federal Reserve has little reason to ease policy anytime soon. For now the message is simple: watch the demand data, not the price noise. That’s it for today. Thanks for reading. Cheers, Nick P.S. Every week, our team conducts extensive research analyzing market data, tracking emerging trends, and creating professional-grade charts and analysis. Our mission: Deliver actionable macro and Bitcoin insights that help institutional investors and financial advisors make better-informed decisions. Ready for institutional-grade research that puts you ahead of the market? Click below to access our premium insights. You're currently a free subscriber to Ecoinometrics. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
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Friday, March 6, 2026
Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Positive Again
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