Treasury yields, stocks, and volatility are all screaming. The fear is palpable. Considering Anthropic's influence. Bitcoin on-chain and price analysis.
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
| | |
| Warning: This typically family-safe newsletter might contain some crude language today, as the situation warrants it.
Register Here
Dear Readers, Greetings from India! On a personal note, I got to see my grandmother this week and take her blessings. On a more practical note, the “Nik leaves the country, buy VIX” trade is alive and well. While the current bout started weeks before I left, it is uncanny just how consistent this curse is. For your reference, I was out of the country when: Trump beat Clinton in 2016 Rates plunged back to zero in February 2020 Liberation Day demolished risk appetite in April 2025
There are many other examples, but you guys don’t read TBL to hear about my international travel schedule, so let us proceed. Between starting and finishing today’s letter, I added two more “fears” to the title. War in the Middle East is bringing us not only a raw emotional fear of the destruction that military engagement can bring, but market volatility that injects fear into the portfolio management portion of our brains. Today’s letter is wide-ranging, including recommending some competing Substacks, liquidity drainage, specifics of the war, energy worries from the Strait of Hormuz closure, price action, and more.
Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app | |
No comments:
Post a Comment