Also Bitcoin Can’t Recover While Equities Drift Lower & The Market Is Finally Adjusting To Higher Rates

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Bitcoin Has Become The Weakest Major Asset Also Bitcoin Can’t Recover While Equities Drift Lower & The Market Is Finally Adjusting To Higher Rates Ecoinometrics Apr 3   READ IN APP   Welcome to Ecoinometrics’ Friday edition. Each week, we analyze the three most critical market signals impacting Bitcoin and macro assets, delivering institutional-grade insights through data-driven charts and analysis. Today we’ll cover: Bitcoin Has Become The Weakest Major Asset Bitcoin Can’t Recover While Equities Drift Lower The Market Is Finally Adjusting To Higher Rates Bitcoin has been lagging other major assets for several months now. What has changed more recently is the environment around it. Equities are losing their upward trend, and the macro backdrop is becoming less supportive. Taken together, these shifts help explain why Bitcoin is still struggling to recover. Let’s look at the data. In case you missed it, here are the other topics we covered this week: The Macro Backdrop Is Turning Against Bitcoin Ecoinometrics · Mar 30 Read full story Bitcoin Inflows Are Losing Momentum Ecoinometrics · Apr 1 Read full story Get these professional-grade insights delivered to your inbox: Upgrade to paid Bitcoin Has Become The Weakest Major Asset Looking at the past 12 months, the shift in leadership is hard to ignore. Bitcoin spent most of the bull phase in this cycle outperforming alongside gold. Today, it sits at the bottom of the table. It is not just underperforming, it is the only major asset clearly in a bear market. That’s the key point. Even with the recent macro pressure, most risk assets are still holding up on a one-year basis. U.S. equities are weaker, but they remain positive. That’s a slowdown, not a full reset, at least for now. Bitcoin is the outlier. What this tells us is that this drawdown was not just a reflection of macro conditions. Bitcoin has already gone through a deeper liquidation phase than the rest of the market. That doesn’t mean the downside is over. If macro conditions deteriorate further, Bitcoin will remain exposed and likely amplify the move. But it does create a gap. If the broader market stabilizes and risk appetite starts to recover, Bitcoin does not need perfect conditions to move higher. It already adjusted more aggressively. In that type of environment that would allow for a catch-up dynamic to take place. We are not there yet. But the relative positioning is clearly in place for when the market turns. Bitcoin is now the only major asset with negative returns over the past 12 months, while equities and most risk assets remain positive. That gap highlights how much of the adjustment has already happened in Bitcoin, but also how dependent any recovery will be on broader risk conditions stabilizing. Bitcoin Can’t Recover While Equities Drift Lower One of the main reasons Bitcoin is struggling to recover is coming from outside crypto. The Nasdaq 100 has now broken below its 200-day moving average. This level tends to separate trending markets from corrective ones. When price holds above it, dips are usually bought. When it breaks below the chance of a deeper correction increases. The day-to-day moves in equities have been noisy, driven by headlines around the Iran conflict and shifting policy signals. But underneath that volatility, the structure is clear. The Nasdaq is in a downtrend. And that has direct consequences for Bitcoin. History tells us that when U.S. equities lose momentum, especially the tech and growth sectors, Bitcoin rarely builds a sustained recovery. You can still get sharp rebounds, but they tend to stall quickly as risk appetite remains fragile. That’s exactly what we’re seeing now. Bitcoin is trying to stabilize, but without support from equities, it lacks the fuel to move higher in a meaningful way. As long as the Nasdaq remains below its long-term trend, any upside in Bitcoin is likely to stay limited. Said differently, for Bitcoin to move back into a sustained uptrend, U.S. equities would need to reclaim their trend first. The Nasdaq 100 has fallen below its 200-day moving average, signalling a loss of upward trend. In this type of environment, Bitcoin typically struggles to sustain rallies, with rebounds fading before a full recovery can take hold. The Market Is Finally Adjusting To Higher Rates The Federal Reserve is not preparing to bring rates back down to where they were before COVID. That has been clear for a while. The dot plots have consistently pointed to a slow and limited easing cycle, with the Fed Funds rate settling above 3% over the long run. The latest projections from March don’t change that story. At most, the Fed sees one 25bps cut this year. Beyond that, rates are expected to stay elevated, with little sign of a return to the low-rate environment that defined the previous decade. What’s changing now is not the Fed’s message. It’s how the market is reacting to it. For a long time, investors kept expecting a faster return to lower rates. That belief supported risk assets, even as the Fed stayed cautious. But recent moves in the bond market suggest that assumption is starting to break down. Short term yields are adjusting higher, and financial conditions are no longer easing. That’s a structural shift. When rates stay structurally higher, liquidity does not expand the same way it did in the past cycle. And without that tailwind, it becomes harder for risk assets to sustain strong, extended rallies. That includes Bitcoin. Bitcoin can still perform in this environment, but the bar is higher. Strong upside moves need real demand behind them, not just improving liquidity conditions. The Fed’s projections show a limited path for rate cuts and a long-term rate above 3%, well above pre-COVID levels. As markets start to adjust to this reality, financial conditions are less likely to ease, raising the bar for sustained upside in Bitcoin and other risk assets. Tactical Takeaway Right now, the setup for Bitcoin is constrained from multiple angles. Bitcoin is already coming from a position of weakness, and the two main forces that usually support a recovery, risk appetite and liquidity, are not providing that support. That changes how we need to approach the market. Until at least one of risk appetite or liquidity conditions improve the demand for Bitcoin is likely to stall. A strong recovery for Bitcoin would likely require equities to stabilize and regain their trend, along with clearer signs that financial conditions are no longer tightening. Without that, upside remains limited. Until those conditions are in place, there’s no reason to add to your Bitcoin position. That’s it for today. Thanks for reading. Cheers, Nick P.S. Every week, our team conducts extensive research analyzing market data, tracking emerging trends, and creating professional-grade charts and analysis. Our mission: Deliver actionable macro and Bitcoin insights that help institutional investors and financial advisors make better-informed decisions. Ready for institutional-grade research that puts you ahead of the market? Click below to access our premium insights. Upgrade to paid Invite your friends and earn rewards If you enjoy Ecoinometrics, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe. Invite Friends   Like Comment Restack   © 2026 Ecoinometrics 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe