Monday, March 9, 2026

Oil Black Swan, or Pick Your Bird

͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏

Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more

Oil Black Swan, or Pick Your Bird

Immense overnight volatility. My thoughts on bitcoin's resilience and how it is responding to this war.

Nik Bhatia

Mar 9

∙

Preview

READ IN APP

Dear Readers,

I wanted to start writing this on Sunday night. My gut told me that would be a mistake. Waking up here on Monday, some of last night’s moves have already reversed, and I’m glad I waited.

The price action over the last 72 hours has been whippy, seesawing, hectic in the way that only genuine fear can produce. Oil gapped up at the Asia open, melted higher to $120 within a few hours, and as of this writing is trading around $101. That’s a 15%+ pullback from the highs in a single session. Stocks gapped down hard on Sunday night and bounced this morning. The dollar surged, then gave some of it back. If you’re feeling like you can’t keep up, that’s because the moves are designed to shake you. They always are.

I’m going to walk you through what I’m watching, what I think it means, and why one market’s silence is telling me more than another market’s noise.

How it works

Become a TBL Pro at 40% OFF on both Monthly & Yearly Subscriptions
Lock in that price for the rest of your life
40% OFF Monthly Subscription offered ONLY ONCE this year

What you get

Two Weekly Macro updates from Nik Bhatia (one letter and one exclusive video)
One weekly Bitcoin Analysis
Access to our TBL Research Dashboard to track TBL Liquidity metrics yourself
Monthly report collaboration with James Check from Checkonchain

Claim Your 40% Off

Article was brought to you by:

Download it here

TL;DR Summary...

Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer to unlock the rest.

Become a paying subscriber of The Bitcoin Layer to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

A subscription gets you:

	Exclusive access to the TBL Liquidity Indicator and Live Research Dashboard
	Actionable levels and price structure analysis for Bitcoin
	Macro and risk insights that guide positioning decisions

Comment

Restack

Bitcoin Demand May Finally Be Bottoming

Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more

Bitcoin Demand May Finally Be Bottoming

Early signs of recovery appear even as macro risks remain elevated

Ecoinometrics

Mar 9

∙

Preview

READ IN APP

Bitcoin briefly pushed above $70K last week before slipping back into the range it has been trading in throughout February.

At first glance, that kind of failed breakout can feel discouraging. It suggests the market still lacks the momentum needed to sustain a rally. But price moves alone rarely tell the full story.

Underneath the day-to-day volatility, structural forces are shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. And right now, some of those forces may be starting to shift.

After months of steady deterioration, the first signs of stabilization in Bitcoin demand are beginning to appear. If that trend holds, it could eventually change how investors think about positioning for the next phase of the market.

The challenge is that this potential improvement is emerging in a fragile macro environment. Geopolitical tensions are high, equities are weakening, and risk appetite across markets is deteriorating. So the situation is not straightforward. Demand may finally be stabilizing, but the broader financial environment could still trigger another wave of liquidation.

To understand where Bitcoin is likely heading next, we need to separate the noise in the price from the forces that are actually driving the market.

Let’s take a closer look at what the data is telling us.

Ecoinometrics delivers professional-grade crypto and macro analysis to help institutional investors and serious traders make data-driven decisions.

Our team conducts rigorous quantitative research, developing proprietary metrics and institutional-quality visualizations that cut through the noise to reveal key market dynamics.

Each newsletter provides clear, actionable insights backed by data, delivered in a concise format that respects your time - five minutes to absorb, but deep enough to inform your investment strategy.

Join over 35,000 professional investors and fund managers:

Ready? Let’s dig into the data.