TBL Weekly #172: The US Economy is Stupid HotA quick US economy and Liquidity update, alongisde all the things you may have missed from TBL this week. TBL Liquidity strategy crushing bitcoin by over 50%.
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Join Nik and Tony Yazbeck of The Bitcoin Way on June 22nd for an exclusive livestream on the hierarchical nature of money, how Bitcoin changes everything, and what YOU need to do about it. Dear Readers, Picture this: it’s 2024…it is my first summer working with Nik at TBL. I also have an accounting/FP&A internship at a local gym franchise in Vancouver, BC (Canada), and I work as a Starbucks barista on the weekends. One brisk summer morning, on my way to the accounting internship, I jump onto one of our usual TBL Monday huddle calls, and we start talking about unemployment. As an accounting intern and barista, I am clearly still learning the ropes of what a US Treasury trader looks at on a daily basis. After I am done asking Nik all my ‘markets’ questions for the week, he turns to me and says, “Dude, if unemployment prints above 4%, it’s gonna be mayhem in markets…”
Let’s just say, truer words were never spoken. Fears of a cooler labor market seeped into everyone’s narratives, and a recession appeared in everyone’s crystal balls. The cherry on top? The yen-carry-trade unwind story, which did not help 10-year yields:
Much to everyone’s surprise, the US economy kept on swimming…and swimming…and swimming. US 10-year yields adjusted accordingly, and were back to their 4% home in no time. Here I am, two summers later, and it seems like nothing has changed. The US economy simply keeps on swimming! As a Canadian, I can’t help but think that you Americans are pulling my leg at this point (...and no, I am not looking at Canada’s real GDP chart…you can’t make me). It’s Hot Right NowI spoke to an economist this morning (Friday), and to keep it short, here’s what I gathered from my call: he is bullish on the US. The AI revolution is bleeding into even smaller sectors of the economy. Have a look at the following chart:
The yearly change in the US weekly economic index (by the Dallas Fed) has been grinding upwards since 2023, and real GDP has followed suit. As we saw during Friday’s NFP print, the labor market appears to be booming (at least in this non-revised print). ADP’s Chief Economist recently went on record to say that hiring in May took place beyond just a few sectors and industries, and that “momentum is strong going into the summer hiring season.” The ever-bullish Ed Yardeni points out that ISM services have been in expansionary territory for 23 consecutive months, and ISM manufacturing just hit its 5th month of continued growth (chart below):
Paradoxically, all this strength has proven a bit painful for our short-term liquidity outlook (especially when looking at US Treasury yields), which Nik talks about in his latest update to TBL Pros. Speaking of liquidity, I want to show you a chart, available live to all TBL Pro and TBL Pulse members. Have a look at the YTD performance of our indicator’s buy-and-sell signals versus a buy-&-hold strategy in bitcoin: Our confirmed liquidity signals, found live on TBL Pulse, have yielded a 54% edge over a buy-and-hold strategy in bitcoin. This level of outperformance can only happen when bitcoin is volatile, and you time the market correctly. So far, in 2026, our TBL Liquidity Indicator (SELL on January 14th, BUY on April 8th, and SELL on May 15th) has worked exceedingly well. If you want access to these signals for the rest of 2026, consider becoming a TBL Pro or TBL Pulse member:
Here’s what people are saying about their experience with our live signals on TBL Pulse: “TBL liquidity model has been accurately a few days ahead of the 42 Macro VAMS model for Bitcoin on both the last turn up and this past turn down. Beating the competition - thank you for the massive value add to my portfolio! Keep up the great work!” “I’m considering replacing the KISS portion of my portfolio with: Bitcoin - follow TBL liquidity SPX - Milton Berg EDGE model Gold - HODL” “I continue to be amazed by Johan’s work. TBL Pulse is now my go-to tool for taking the pulse of the BTC market. Thanks, TBL Team. 👏” “I am looking every day, and I’m starting to learn day by day more about how to read the metrics. And those sessions, like what we are now doing, are helping a great deal in understanding everything. Thank you, guys. Really great, great, great.” Thank you to each and every one of you for your support. It is, in fact, your feedback that has continued to make this product better and better. Substack This Week
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For Podcast ListenersHere are the links to our latest episode: SPOTIFY
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