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Hello TBL subscribers, We’ve added many new features to TBL Pulse this month that move it closer to what we want it to be: a single place for tracking what Liquidity is doing and what it means for bitcoin. The headline is live performance tracking for the TBL Liquidity signal. Following the signal this year would have you up 22.9%, while holding bitcoin would have you down 30.8%, a difference of over 50%! Track the Signal’s Performance, LiveThose numbers come from a new chart on the dashboard, updated daily, with every signal change marked on the line. The chart follows two paths from January 1. One holds bitcoin. The other holds bitcoin while the signal reads Buy and sits in 3-month Treasury bills while it reads Sell, with no leverage and no shorting. The gap comes from three signal changes this year:
The strategy has been in T-bills since mid-May, with bitcoin now trading near $62,000. You can see where the signal stands today, along with every entry and exit price, here. The State GridThe State Grid places bitcoin on a nine-cell grid of trend versus valuation. One look answers where we are in the cycle. Nik’s Bitcoin TrendlinesThe rebuilt Home page now carries Nik’s Technical Analysis chart: a large bitcoin chart with the same trendlines he draws in his own work, kept current as he updates them. Alongside it sits a new Relative Returns chart racing bitcoin, gold, the S&P 500, and Treasuries. Also, by popular request, the dashboard now has a light mode. And the Bitcoin tab kept growing: institutional holdings data, an options gamma heatmap, mining charts, and new trend models bring it to 66 charts across 13 categories. The AI Tab Is FREE for EveryoneWe also built an AI tab covering the AI capital cycle: hyperscaler capex, AI-related equities, and scale KPIs. Our research argues that AI capex is likely to be the single largest influence on Liquidity as it pertains to bitcoin, and this tab is that argument in chart form. For example, the demand for AI equities is strengthening the demand for the US dollar, a negative TBL Liquidity condition. It’s open to everyone, no account needed. You can take a look here. Catch the Next Buy SignalThe signal has read Sell since May 15. At some point it will flip back to Buy, and subscribers will see that change in their inbox the morning it’s confirmed, the same way they saw the last three. If you want to catch that one, take a look at Pulse before it happens. Along with the signal and its alerts, you’ll find the performance tracker, the State Grid, 66 bitcoin charts, more than 30 institutional Macrobond charts, and the live economic calendar. Thank you for reading and for being part of The Bitcoin Layer. As always, if there’s anything you’d like us to add to Pulse or explore further in our research, we’d love to hear from you. P.S. If you want a fuller walkthrough of everything here, recordings of our recent webinars are up. You can watch them here. Performance figures are simulated returns from the published TBL Liquidity signal confirmations, priced at the daily close on each confirmation date, with cash earning the 3-month Treasury bill rate and no fees or taxes included. Figures as of June 11, 2026. |
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Friday, June 12, 2026
New on TBL Pulse: Live Signal Performance Tracking
Strategy Is At Some Of The Deepest Discount Levels Ever
Strategy Is At Some Of The Deepest Discount Levels EverBuying $1 of Bitcoin for $0.82? Strategy's discount, RSI, and 200-week support are creating one of its most compelling setups ever.
I’ve been vocal about accumulating Bitcoin aggressively at current levels. Now I’m starting to look seriously at Strategy too. The same kind of confluence that flagged Bitcoin as a sizeable accumulation opportunity is appearing on MSTR, and in some cases, the readings are even more extreme. This week at a glance:
DiscountStrategy currently holds approximately 845,000 BTC with an Average Cost Basis in the mid-$70,000s. That means, at current Bitcoin prices, they’re sitting at a pretty massive loss on their holdings. Figure 1: Strategy’s Average BTC Cost Basis and other key metrics. This has coincided with the NAV dropping even deeper beneath 1.00x; with MSTR’s market cap currently sitting approximately 18% below the USD value of its Bitcoin holdings. In other words, buying MSTR at current prices is the equivalent of buying $1 of Bitcoin for $0.82. SupportThe 200-week moving average is usually pretty notable support for assets, especially those that typically trend to the upside. Strategy’s share price is currently sitting right on this level, the same level that has previously marked significant accumulation zones. Figure 2: Strategy’s share price tests the 200-week moving average. A sustained hold and reclaim of this level, combined with Bitcoin showing any upward momentum, historically sets up the conditions for meaningful MSTR recovery. The level is being tested. Whether it holds will be one of the key signals to watch over the coming weeks. RSISince Strategy adopted a Bitcoin standard, the RSI for MSTR has only been lower on a handful of prior occasions, both during previous Bitcoin bear market cycle lows, when the share price was in the low teens. The current reading isn’t quite at those depths, but it’s approaching them, and the direction of travel is continuing downward. Figure 3: MSTR’s RSI drops beneath 25. Historically, such levels have preceded price appreciation. The Mayer Multiple, simply the ratio between MSTR’s closing price and its 200-day moving average, recently registered a reading where 99.2% of all prior data points were higher. That’s a historically extreme level of underperformance relative to its own moving average, and it’s occurred at broadly the same time as the RSI signal. Giving two independent momentum indicators, both flashing readings only seen at the most significant cycle lows in MSTR’s history. MSTR or BTC?The ratio between Bitcoin’s price and MSTR’s share price is one of the cleaner ways to gauge whether exposure should be in Bitcoin directly or rotated toward the higher-beta proxy. When the ratio is in the green upper zone, MSTR has historically been positioned to outperform. When it’s in the red lower zone, Bitcoin tends to lead. Figure 4: The BTCUSD/MSTR ratio is close to the green zone, a level that has previously preceded sustained MSTR outperformance. The ratio is currently close to entering that green zone again. Previous instances of this were followed by extended periods of significant MSTR outperformance relative to Bitcoin. The ratio is also making lower highs on the long-term trend, indicating the general trajectory is shifting toward MSTR becoming increasingly favorable relative to direct Bitcoin exposure. Fair ValueAt the previous all-time high of around $126,000 and with no additional accumulation priced in, a 1x net asset value premium on MSTR would imply a share price of over $300. That’s roughly a 2.5x from current levels just to reach fair value at Bitcoin’s last peak. Figure 5: MSTR price targets modeled across varying BTC holdings and NAV premium scenarios. If MSTR continues accumulating toward the 900,000 BTC range and the NAV premium moves modestly higher toward 1.25x or 1.5x, well below the 3x+ levels seen in the previous cycle, the numbers become pretty enticing! Crucially, the MSTR dilution that drove bitcoin accumulation is increasingly being funded through STRC rather than common share issuance, reducing that particular headwind. Where Are We?I’ve been accumulating bitcoin aggressively. I’m now also looking to add more MSTR. The combination of extreme momentum readings, the 200-week moving average support, an implied discount to the underlying Bitcoin holdings, and the BTC vs MSTR ratio close to entering historically favorable territory makes this feel like a no-brainer for a short-term play to increase my own BTC stack. That said, MSTR is a high-beta Bitcoin play. If Bitcoin continues to struggle, MSTR will struggle more. I’m not treating this as a replacement for Bitcoin exposure, but as an additional asymmetric position at a point where the data suggests the risk-reward is historically favorable. And watch our most recent YouTube video here: MSTR Has Only Done This 4 Times Ever — I’m Buying $1 For 82 Cents Matt Crosby (@MattCrosbyPro) Director of Research & Analytics Bitcoin Magazine ProFor more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else. We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload. Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:
Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market! Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. We sincerely appreciate your support and hope you found this content valuable. Please leave a like and let us know your thoughts in the comments section; we always welcome feedback from our audience!
© 2026 BTC Inc. |
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