Article brought to you by:Over the last few months, we’ve been building a framework to assess which state bitcoin is currently in. As many readers know by now, we assess this through two lenses: valuation and trend. The launch of TBL Pulse sped up the process of writing and publishing about the concept and the framework. It’s important to note that we took the approach to publish and keep building in parallel. We could have kept the framework and charts on the drawing table until we got sound results. But that could take months or even years, and in the meantime, the influences on bitcoin could have changed, forcing us to make changes and start over. We took this approach to show what we have so far, which brings the signal to you while it’s still fresh. But this also implies that we are fine-tuning and changing the framework on the fly. In today’s letter, I’m going to write about some of the findings and the framework, but this explanation is needed for you to understand that we are dealing with a lot of trade-offs. With some of these trade-offs, there isn’t a clear winner. We want you to be on board and engaged in the development of this framework, and that is why we wanted to lay out one of these trade-offs. TL;DR Summary...Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app
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Bitcoin’s Rally Lacks Macro Confirmation
Bitcoin’s Rally Lacks Macro ConfirmationBitcoin Correlations Report, April 2026
Bitcoin has been acting stronger than the macro backdrop would normally suggest. That stands out because despite all the narratives around Bitcoin as a unique asset, it still trades largely as part of the broader risk-on complex. When liquidity tightens and investors reduce risk, Bitcoin usually feels it. Which makes the recent price action worth paying attention to. Bitcoin is back near $74K. The Nasdaq has recovered most of its drawdown. And if you looked only at prices, you could easily conclude that markets are moving past the recent macro turbulence. But price alone rarely tells the full story. When market behaviour starts to diverge from the broader macro backdrop, investors need to ask a harder question: is the market genuinely improving, or is price getting ahead of itself? That is exactly what we need to determine right now. So let’s look at the data. Ecoinometrics delivers professional-grade crypto and macro analysis to help institutional investors and serious traders make data-driven decisions. Our team conducts rigorous quantitative research, developing proprietary metrics and institutional-quality visualizations that cut through the noise to reveal key market dynamics. Each newsletter provides clear, actionable insights backed by data, delivered in a concise format that respects your time - five minutes to absorb, but deep enough to inform your investment strategy. Join over 35,000 professional investors and fund managers: Ready? Let’s dig into the data. Bitcoin’s Rally Lacks Macro ConfirmationThe Takeaway...
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