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Sentiment is improving, mainly because bitcoin has been performing relatively well since the war in the Middle East started. Gold pulled back and is currently trading below $5,000 per troy ounce, and the S&P 500 is heading towards the 200-day moving average, which sits at 6612. There was a post on X from somebody that I don’t recall, and I’m paraphrasing here, but it stated something like:
Bitcoin is being sold at a premium in [enter same country] because of its properties It was a simple but very striking statement. And if you remember one thing from this letter, let it be that statement. Because that right there is the signal. In the meantime, every former tariff expert on X became a Strait of Hormuz expert who is ‘monitoring the situation’ closely. With Corporate High Yield rates rising and an elevated VIX, the chart looks similar to what it looked like in February 2025 for the S&P 500. As we all know, oil and natural gas are among the most important commodities in the world. They serve as inputs for a plethora of outputs, from gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, to fertilizers, plastics, and the helium and chemicals essential to semiconductor manufacturing. So the market is trying to figure out what the impact will be when the situation in the Middle East continues to be a bottleneck for the global economy, or how it can be resolved. They are trying to weigh different scenarios and assign probabilities to them. TL;DR Summary...Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app
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Wednesday, March 18, 2026
Are we back yet?
Bitcoin Demand Is Recovering, But Macro Has Not Turned
Something important has shifted in Bitcoin over the past couple of weeks. After months of persistent outflows and forced deleveraging, ETF flows have finally stabilized and started to turn. That’s the first real sign of demand coming back into the market. This return of demand forms the base for a recovery and is essential. However we are still far from bull market conditions. And Bitcoin doesn’t move in isolation. It trades as part of a broader macro system which ultimately determines whether a recovery can extend or stall. So the real question right now isn’t just whether demand is improving. It’s whether that improvement is happening in a supportive environment. Because if it isn’t, what looks like the start of a recovery can quickly turn into just another temporary bounce. So before getting too comfortable with the idea of a recovery, it’s worth stepping back and asking if the macro backdrop is helping or hindering its recovery. Let’s look at the data. Ecoinometrics delivers professional-grade crypto and macro analysis to help institutional investors and serious traders make data-driven decisions. Our team conducts rigorous quantitative research, developing proprietary metrics and institutional-quality visualizations that cut through the noise to reveal key market dynamics. Each newsletter provides clear, actionable insights backed by data, delivered in a concise format that respects your time - five minutes to absorb, but deep enough to inform your investment strategy. Join over 35,000 professional investors and fund managers: Ready? Let’s dig into the data. Bitcoin Demand Is Recovering, But Macro Has Not TurnedThe TakeawayBitcoin demand is improving as ETF flows stabilize, but the macro backdrop has not turned supportive yet... Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app
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