The TBL Team is going live on Wednesday, May 6th, at 2:00 PM EST to walk through TBL Pulse end-to-end. Free to attend, questions welcome. We want to teach you how to use and capitalize on this incredible tool we’ve built.
YouTube link, alongside the video’s summary, can be found below
Macro Update
For those of you who missed it, here’s the recording of our week’s Q&A with Michael Howell earlier this week. Don’t forget to follow the team over at Crossborder Capital. We made sure he answered the questions you all submitted in advance!
Here are the Q&A’s topics of discussion:
We open with Michael Howell’s framework on the collateral multiplier: why the modern financial system runs on collateral, and what that means for how liquidity actually moves through global markets.
We walk through where we are in the 65-month global liquidity cycle: Michael’s view that the cycle peaked in late 2025 and is trending toward a 2027 trough, what the yield curve is confirming, and why the real economy absorbing liquidity is actually a sign of late-cycle strength.
We close with bitcoin, gold, and how to position for both. Michael explains why bitcoin leads stocks by three to six months as the purest liquidity barometer, why the gold price is increasingly being set in China, and how to think about core versus tactical allocation when the liquidity cycle is working against you in the short run.
Okay, on to today’s 1-hour Q&A recording (private YouTube link below) and TLDR summary...
Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer to unlock the rest.
Become a paying subscriber of The Bitcoin Layer to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.
Each week, we analyze the three most critical market signals impacting Bitcoin and macro assets, delivering institutional-grade insights through data-driven charts and analysis.
Today we’ll cover:
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Are Becoming Persistent
Bitcoin Is Getting Closer To Test Its Long-Term Trend
Inflation Is Rising Again
Right now, the market is sending mixed signals.
Demand is improving, price is starting to recover, but the macro backdrop is not fully supportive. That kind of setup is where transitions happen and where it becomes critical to separate what is actually changing from what only looks better on the surface.
In case you missed it, here are the other topics we covered this week:
Bitcoin has been moving higher in April, but the more important shift is happening under the surface. Demand is starting to stick.
You can see it clearly in the ETF flows. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin ETFs went through a nine-day streak of net inflows. That’s the longest stretch of consistent demand we’ve seen in this entire bear market. The last time flows looked like this was in October 2025, right as Bitcoin was pushing into its all-time high. After that, demand disappeared and the market rolled over.
What’s different now is not the size of the inflows, but their persistence.
The chart shows a clear change in behaviour. Outflow streaks are becoming shorter and less frequent, while inflow streaks are starting to extend again. That kind of shift is what a rebuilding demand regime looks like.
Right now Bitcoin doesn’t need massive inflows to move higher. It needs consistent ones.
When demand shows up day after day, it creates a steady bid under the market. And historically, that kind of persistence has been strongly associated with positive returns over the following weeks and months.
This doesn’t guarantee an immediate breakout, but it does shift the odds. Demand is rebuilding.
And importantly, this isn’t just isolated to ETF flows. As we discussed earlier this week, other demand indicators are also starting to turn in the same direction. The signal here is broader than a single data series. We covered that down in detail on Wednesday.
ETF flows are improving and are becoming more consistent. Longer inflow streaks and fewer sustained outflows signal that demand is rebuilding beneath the surface, even before price fully reflects it.
Bitcoin Is Getting Closer To Test Its Long-Term Trend
Price is not just bouncing. It’s starting to reconnect with its long-term trend.
Bitcoin is still trading well below its all-time high, and a 40% drawdown is not something you can ignore. But the structure is improving. The recovery is becoming more consistent, and that is now showing up in how price interacts with its 200-day moving average.
The chart below tracks how far Bitcoin’s price sits from its 200-day moving average.
Right now, the ratio is still below 1, which means price has not reclaimed that long-term reference point yet. But the gap is closing.
A move above 1 would be a first sign that price is moving back above its long-term trend. A flattening 200-day average would make the recovery signal stronger but we are far from that.
The 200-day moving average is where longer-term positioning starts to change. When Bitcoin remains far below its 200-day average, rallies are usually still part of a damaged market structure. When price gets back above it and holds there, the recovery has a better chance of attracting longer-term capital.
That’s not about short-term momentum it’s about whether the market is willing to reprice Bitcoin higher over time.
Now price is rising while the trend is still negative, which creates a slow convergence toward a potential crossover.
If Bitcoin manages to reclaim its 200-day average and hold above it, that would mark a meaningful shift in the market structure.
Until then, the recovery is real, but not confirmed.
Bitcoin is moving back toward its long-term trend, but has not reclaimed it yet. Historically, sustained moves above the 200-day average mark the transition from recovery to confirmed uptrend.
Inflation Is Rising Again
The latest inflation data leaves very little room for interpretation.
Headline PCE inflation has moved back up to 3.5% year-on-year, pushed higher by the recent surge in energy prices. That part is easy to explain. Oil has moved sharply due to the war in Iran, and that feeds directly into headline inflation.
But that’s not the real issue.
The chart shows that core inflation has been drifting higher for months now. At 3.2% year-on-year, it is moving in the wrong direction, and it has been doing so well before the latest energy shock. Core services, which tend to be the most persistent part of inflation, remain elevated as well.
That’s important because the Fed cannot ignore core inflation.
Energy shocks can be temporary. Core inflation is not. When it starts rising again, it signals that price pressures are becoming embedded in the economy. That is exactly the kind of environment where the Fed is forced to stay cautious, even if growth remains solid.
That’s where we are now.
The economy is holding up. The labor market is stable. But inflation is getting worse, and that removes the room the Fed needs to ease policy.
But as long as core inflation keeps drifting higher, the path toward lower rates remains limited.
The recent rise in headline inflation is driven by energy, but the underlying problem is broader. Core inflation has been trending higher for months, keeping pressure on the Fed to maintain a cautious stance.
Tactical Takeaway
Things are getting better, but they’re not fully in sync yet.
Demand is clearly improving and price is starting to follow. That’s enough to lean constructive here. But the trend hasn’t flipped and the macro backdrop is still a constraint, so this isn’t the kind of setup where you want to go all in.
If you’re increasing exposure, it makes sense to do it gradually as the signals come through.
The next real test is the 200-day trend. If Bitcoin can move above it and stay there, that’s usually where recoveries start to build more consistently. That’s the kind of confirmation that changes how you think about the move.
On the flip side, the flow picture matters just as much. If the recent improvement in ETF demand fades and we slip back into sustained outflows, that would be an early sign that this recovery is losing support.
For now, the direction is improving. But this is not a guaranteed recovery pattern yet.
That’s it for today. Thanks for reading.
Cheers,
Nick
P.S. Every week, our team conducts extensive research analyzing market data, tracking emerging trends, and creating professional-grade charts and analysis.
Our mission: Deliver actionable macro and Bitcoin insights that help institutional investors and financial advisors make better-informed decisions.
Ready for institutional-grade research that puts you ahead of the market? Click below to access our premium insights.
