Wednesday, March 4, 2026

When Valuation Meets Trend

͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏

Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more

When Valuation Meets Trend

Reading the market from multiple angles

Johan Bergman

Mar 4

∙

Preview

READ IN APP

Article brought to you by:

Visit Unchained Today

Dear Readers,

Bitcoin is showing some relative strength here with a little rally above $70,000 amidst the unrest in the Middle East. While it’s most likely that this rally fades and price heads back to the $60-handle again at some point, it does show bitcoin isn’t dead. And investors pay attention to which assets perform well during market stress and drawdowns, because those assets could be the new winners when the bull returns.

This letter will explore how Trend can help provide a high signal in combination with Valuation. We’ll integrate our current ‘Trend Analysis’ into a larger, coherent framework.

TL;DR Summary...

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

A subscription gets you:

	Exclusive access to the TBL Liquidity Indicator and Live Research Dashboard
	Actionable levels and price structure analysis for Bitcoin
	Macro and risk insights that guide positioning decisions

Comment

Restack

Bitcoin Likely To Drift Lower Without ETF Demand

Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more

Bitcoin Likely To Drift Lower Without ETF Demand

Bitcoin ETFs Report, March 2026

Ecoinometrics

Mar 4

∙

Preview

READ IN APP

From a demand perspective, Bitcoin started February on the most bearish trajectory we had outlined in our earlier analysis.

ETF outflows accelerated quickly, and for a while the market looked as if it was heading straight into another wave of selling pressure. Then things improved. Outflows slowed. Flows stabilized. And the market stopped deteriorating as quickly as it had at the beginning of the month.

At first glance that might look like the beginning of a recovery. But stabilization and recovery are two very different things.

In most bear phases, markets don’t reverse immediately once selling pressure fades. What usually comes first is a period of uneasy balance: the selling slows down, but new demand still hasn’t arrived.

That kind of environment can create the illusion of improvement even though the underlying dynamics haven’t really changed.

Which brings us to the key question right now: has Bitcoin demand actually started to recover, or are we simply seeing a pause inside a broader downtrend?

To answer that, we need to look at what the ETF flows are telling us.

So let’s have a look.

Ecoinometrics delivers professional-grade crypto and macro analysis to help institutional investors and serious traders make data-driven decisions.

Our team conducts rigorous quantitative research, developing proprietary metrics and institutional-quality visualizations that cut through the noise to reveal key market dynamics.

Each newsletter provides clear, actionable insights backed by data, delivered in a concise format that respects your time - five minutes to absorb, but deep enough to inform your investment strategy.

Join over 35,000 professional investors and fund managers:

Ready? Let’s dig into the data.