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What’s Happening
Bitcoin has had a solid week, once again managing to hold above the 200 week moving average. That is a positive sign for the bulls, even if price has not yet rallied aggressively to the upside. BTC is up +1.28% over the past seven days.
Figure 1: BTC past week price action.
If Bitcoin can continue to hold this level, July is on track to be one of its strongest months of the year. That matters because the majority of months in 2026 have so far been deep in the red.
Figure 2: Monthly Returns Heatmap.
BTC is currently up around +10% for July, a welcome change after what has been a challenging year for Bitcoin investors.
Bitcoin has had a difficult 12 months, with price still down roughly -44% from this time last year.
Figure 3: BTC past year price performance.
That level of drawdown has pushed many investors away from the market. Those who remain have been extremely cautious, as shown by the Fear & Greed Index, which is currently in Fear with a score of 28.
Figure 4: Fear & Greed Index.
However, our view at Bitcoin Magazine Pro is that this is precisely the type of environment where maximum long-term opportunity begins to appear. Price continues to trade in a region comparable with previous bear market lows. Historically, holding Bitcoin from these areas into future cycles has produced outsized returns.
The Bitcoin Investor Tool highlights this clearly using the 2 year moving average, shown by the green line on the chart.
Figure 5: Bitcoin Investor Tool.
Accumulating around these broad valuation zones has been a highly effective strategy for Bitcoin investors over the years. The tool is not designed to identify the exact cycle low. Instead, it highlights the wider areas where Bitcoin has historically offered strong long-term value. Each time BTC has traded in these zones, price has later gone on to reach significantly higher levels.
The MVRV Z-Score is telling a similar story. It continues to trend in a zone of opportunity, showing that Bitcoin is trading close to the average cost basis of all coins. That suggests BTC remains undervalued relative to historical norms. Importantly, this indicator does not need to fall fully into the green zone for the setup to be attractive. Historically, anywhere around these levels has offered a strong entry point for long-term investors.
Figure 6: MVRV Z-Score.
In summary, multiple metrics continue to suggest that this broad area is a fantastic dollar cost averaging zone for Bitcoin. That view is also reflected in our Q3 Market Map, which shows BTC trading near the 200WMA, with realized price below as the deeper value zone and the 200DMA above as the key level for market confidence to return.
Figure 7: Bitcoin 2026 Q3 Market Map.
In our view, this remains exactly the kind of uncomfortable, low-sentiment environment where patient long-term Bitcoin investors have historically found some of the strongest opportunities.
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The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team
For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
