Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Stocks Keep Crashing (In Korea!)

͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏

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Stocks Keep Crashing (In Korea!)

AI valuations finally coming down, what higher Treasury yields really mean, and why bitcoin could be reacting to currency devaluations.

Nik Bhatia

Jul 28

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Dear Readers,

In a stunning move, Korean stocks opened up Tuesday morning down 9%. At precisely this time, investors’ theories start coagulating from individual streams of thought to one blob of consensus:

We now must ask ourselves if the going theory is correct, a bunch of hype, or completely missing the point. In this endeavor, we will proceed sentence by sentence. Starting with the first:

“A selloff in global semiconductor stocks deepened on Tuesday, as investor sentiment continued to worsen over the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom.”

The sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom. This is what everyone is worried about: whether returns in Nvidia, Micron, and other names can or will continue into the future; whether a company like SpaceX’s IPO marks the top of the market, and whether China’s old tricks in new games can spoil the entire party.

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Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Bitcoin Looking Constructive While Macro Frowns

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Bitcoin Looking Constructive While Macro Frowns

A confirmed Red Dot appears alongside some pretty solid bitcoin price action. Our TBL Model Portfolio tracker is here!

Nik Bhatia

Jul 21

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Dear Readers,

This week started with a real conundrum. Planning out my week with pen and pad in hand, I wondered what we would do if Monday morning brought about a confirmed Red Dot. After all, our data and methodology was showing that it might happen. And most importantly, the bitcoin chart started to look solid.

One of our sharp TBL Pros pointed out last week what we have ourselves been pondering. TBL Liquidity is flatlining because the underlying components balance out to minimal changes, so why not avoid BUY and SELL signals when our TBL Liquidity Indicator, our ultimate “swing” signal, is near zero?

On the surface, we think it is a good idea. After all, why lead the TBL Pro in and out of positions when the signal appears to be weak, not strong? I examine this and present my conclusion, at least for now. It would also be easy to take this mini-rally in bitcoin and suggest that our entire methodology is incorrect, but that approach lacks discipline, which I’ll explain.

I also discuss what is happening in India and relate it to US domestic and international policy, which appears to be unravelling for the White House but may instead be much more devious. My “Spidey senses” continue to perceive a dollar squeeze-type financial pinch and/or crisis, so we’ll pull on that thread as it appears.

Before I begin my letter in earnest, we want to point you to the official launch of our TBL Model Portfolio tracker on TBL Pulse. You’ll see that it is already underperforming its benchmark, as we started ourselves “on the clock” July 1st and tech names have severely lagged during July.

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