In this post, we take a close look at Bitcoin's market trends, breaking down the on-chain metrics, price trends, and the big-picture economic indicators that all play a role in its value. Bitcoin's on-chain metrics and derivatives market suggest cautious optimism, while the macroeconomic indicators hint at a challenging yet potentially opportunistic environment for Bitcoin. Short-term holder gains and long-term holder consolidation, alongside large spreads between price and support levels, has resulted in the typical bull market volatility.
Analyzing the on-chain data, we see clear signs of a market correction. For instance, the Realized HODL Ratio increased significantly over 30 days, indicating that long-term holders are less inclined to sell, which could be a bullish signal. At the same time, over the last 7 days the HODL Ratio is down slightly. The MVRV Z-Score, which helps identify speculative excesses, saw a rise over 7 days but less so than the enormous increase over 30 days, again suggesting a period of consolidation. The Reserve Risk increased, suggesting higher confidence among long-term investors despite increased prices over 30 days, but it too fell over a 7-day span.
The Coin Days Destroyed metric, which indicates the movement of old coins, saw an increase over the month, potentially signaling increased activity or shifts among long-term holders. Conversely, the STH LTH Costs Basis Ratio decreased over 30 days, suggesting a shift in the cost basis between short-term and long-term holders. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio and the Percent Supply in Profit both increased, pointing towards a generally optimistic market sentiment.
Hodl through corrections: The increase in the Realized HODL Ratio and Reserve Risk suggests a strong holding sentiment among long-term investors, indicating potential upward pressure on bitcoin prices if the trend persists.
Long-term trends trump short-term corrections: The significant 30-day increase in MVRV Z-Score and the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio suggests growing optimism and valuation in the market, which investors might interpret as a signal for a bullish trend, but they should also be wary of potential speculative excesses.
The price section shows a significant bullish trend, highlighted by current price exceeding key moving averages, despite today’s 5% drop. Our analysis uncovers a notable disparity between short-term and long-term holder realized prices, suggesting a dynamic interplay in the market.
Price metrics have been our most bullish part of the dashboard for months now. With the significant rise in price, we are safely above all moving averages which should act as support in any unlikely extreme sell-off event. The 50-day moving average (DMA), 100DMA, and 200DMA are all significantly below the current price, even considering today's decline, indicating a bullish trend over these periods. Do not let a short-term correction, that we’ve been expecting and forecasting, make you question the bullish trend...
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