Bitcoin investors expect the price will go up after the halving like they expect the sun will rise again tomorrow. This kind of belief leads to a self-fulfilling prophecy of bull markets always following the Bitcoin halving events. This time around with the ETFs helping the demand side of the equation nobody thinks it will be different. So the question isn't really if Bitcoin will go up after the halving. The question is by how much? The Ecoinometrics newsletter gives you insights from crypto and macro data to help you make better investment decisions. We spend hours every day gathering data, creating metrics and bringing them to life with data visualizations that allow you to quickly get to the heart of things. We then distill all that knowledge in each issue of the newsletter with less words and more charts so that you get insights, direct to the point, in five minutes or less. Join more than 21,000 investors here: Done? Thanks! That’s great! Now let’s dive in. Bitcoin's price after the halving: updating the modelThe takeawayUnder the assumption that Bitcoin's growth trajectory after the halving will rhyme with history we can make some guesses about where Bitcoin is going. The range is wide:
With the existence of the ETFs and the current market dynamics at play I believe Bitcoin challenging gold within a few years is a reasonable upper bound for growth this cycle. In terms of Bitcoin's price that would place this upper bound around $560k per BTC. That's in line with an average growth post-halving based on the last three cycles. But let's look at it in full details. What happened after the third halving?... Continue reading this post for free, courtesy of Ecoinometrics.A subscription gets you:
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Monday, March 11, 2024
Bitcoin's price after the halving: updating the model
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