| It's a bloodbath in the markets.
ETH is down ~17.5% week over week, and you're probably less eager to check your portfolio than last week. The big question on everyone's mind is...is it over? My friend sent me a text yesterday... Friend: "Bro, I'm so confused. The market just broke its all-time high last week, and the price crashed. Do you think we're going up, or did I miss the boat?" I've been through a few cycles already so I know that corrections like this are normal.
But him? He's skeptical - if you want to convince him of anything, you need to show him some data, charts, and analysis. Look, I don't have a crystal ball. The best I can do is make some educated guesses backed by data.
I believe we're still in the early stages of a bull market and we still have a lot more room to run. Here are some indicators that I'm looking at that show we're nowhere near this cycle's top.
Indicator #1: Retail's not here yet Something that feels funny is that "retail" isn't here yet.
Do you remember what it was like in 2017 or 2021? Crypto was all over mainstream news. You couldn't get a haircut or an Uber ride without hearing about Crypto. And all your friends were shilling memecoins on Facebook.
Yeah, we broke ATHs, but it's because of the BTC ETF and institutional flows. Retail users haven't arrived yet and potentially contribute trillions once they're back.
Two quick ways to gauge retail interest:
a) YouTube views. When your cousin returns to Crypto, where will he look for information? Chances are it's YouTube. So, you can use YouTube views as an indicator of retail interest.
Notice how the chart indicates that the average # of YouTube views has barely increased this year. b. Cryptocurrency monthly exchange volume. Retail users primarily use exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase. While the exchange volume has been going up for the past few months, we're nowhere near the peak. Indicator #2: Venture Capital Fundraising I know it's easy to put Venture Capitalists on a pedestal, but they're more similar to retail than you think.
Like retail, they jump head-first into overvaluations. And like retail, the scars of cryptos' 2022 year cut deep for venture capitalists.
They've yet to still recover from the bear market. Historically, VC crypto investments have correlated with crypto asset prices with a lag of roughly three to six months.
Guys like us move like speedboats. If we want to buy a token, we can have it in our wallets within minutes. VCs move slowly like cruise ships. They move slower because of the high level of due diligence, paperwork, and management sign-offs needed before they can enter a deal. Indicator #3: The MRVR Z Score MVRV Z-Score is a bitcoin chart that uses blockchain analysis to identify periods where Bitcoin is extremely over or undervalued relative to its 'fair value.' To keep it simple, the market is overheated when the Z-Score (Orange Line) touches the red zone. And you should be extremely cautious when this happens. We're at a Z-score of 3 now, which shows that the market still has room to run. What can you conclude about this data? Look, I'm not one of those guys shouting that BTC's going to the moon. I take a level-headed approach, looking at the data and making the best guesses possible.
I'd start de-risking to preserve my capital if I felt the market was overheated.
But the data shows we're still early, and industry-wide catalysts are still coming. - BTC institutional flow is still coming. GBTC's outflow is causing the correction this week, but they're going to run out of BTC to sell sooner than later.
| Crypto.com Research & Insights @cryptocom_rni |
6:29 PM • Mar 18, 2024 |
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- Ethereum ETF - The BTC ETF has paved the way for other ETFs. We could see an ETH ETF this year and possibly Solana one to follow.
- Crypto x A.I. - It's no secret that A.I. is now the hottest thing on the planet. And we're seeing a huge surge in interest for Crypto x A.I. projects. I believe memecoins, gamefi, and A.I. will be the 3 narratives that retail users love the most.
- BTC Halving - BTC halving reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. It happens every four years and has always caused price increases afterward.
I do want to make something clear, though.
We're no longer in the accumulation period. We're now in the Early Bull. The market "bottom" was when FTX collapsed, and we saw ETH at around $1k. Since then, its price has quadrupled. The good news: there's still time to make life-changing gains
The bad news: there's not a lot of time left.
So, what if you're interested in making the most of the bull market but you're feeling underprepared?
You could crush it, but unfortunately, there's not enough time in the day. Between work, traffic, and family, you're lucky to have 2 hours of focused work to research Crypto.
One solution? Just piggyback off of me and my team's several thousand hours of research.
It's kinda like when you're feeling underprepared for a final exam, and your nerdy friend comes to the rescue.
Double Your DeFi is a 5-week live online course starting on April 1st, 2024 and completing on May 3rd, 2024. This program is about practical, action-oriented strategies to electrify your DeFi journey. And the best part? You'll be doing it alongside other like-minded DeFi users in a community. We're not here to talk about the "what" of DeFi. We're here to get down to the nitty-gritty and show you the "how" with actual examples.
You don't need to read more threads, or watch more YouTube videos. You need a transformation. Over five weeks, you'll participate in a combination of live Zoom calls, research hours, Q&A office hours, pre-recorded content, and exercises. This interactive program could be the missing piece. Enrollment ends Friday March 29th, or when we hit full capacity. Join Double Your DeFi and get the "secret playbook" to learn how to find gems, evaluate protocols, profit from opportunities, and catch narratives early.
Until next time,
Edgy
p.s. I'm sure you're smart enough to figure everything out yourself, but why? Time is money. It's much faster, and high leverage to learn from the mistakes of others.
And now that we're in the middle of the bull market, time is critical.
Join Double Your DeFi, and I'll help you every step of the way. | 
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