"You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West
🇨🇭 Join our Swissblock Telegram Group! Get daily updates, in-house content, and technical analysis on crypto & macroeconomics. Tap into a hub of knowledge and insights. Stay ahead with Swissblock. Sign up now! 🚀
The market is once again testing its all-time highs, indicating ongoing bullish momentum and investor interest despite previous challenges. While the $70k level poses a psychological barrier, there are no significant technical obstacles, such as the risk signal, preventing further upward movement.
However, a pullback may be necessary to attract more investors seeking value opportunities, with the market currently showing signs of exhaustion. Nonetheless, the prevailing sentiment suggests a "buy on the dip" strategy remains viable for players looking to capitalize on potential price retracements.
Figure 1: Bitcoin Risk Signal is a proprietary signal that gauges the amount of risk of a major drawdown in Bitcoin price.
The US Dollar (DXY) is experiencing its sixth consecutive day of losses, driven by a combination of factors including the US Jobs Report. Despite an upbeat surprise in the Nonfarm Payrolls number, the market reacted negatively to a substantial downward revision of the previous figure, leading to a decline in the DXY.
Additionally, indicators such as the Unemployment rate and the Average Hourly Earnings pointing towards contraction further contributed to the DXY’s decline. This downward trend is reflected in US Treasury yields, which are moving lower towards the 4.0% threshold, in anticipation of forthcoming rate cuts promised by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The decline in yields aligns with market expectations for easing monetary policy, as yields typically move inversely to anticipated changes in interest rates.
Figure 2: DXY, US10Y and Bitcoin Price Evolution.
March BTC futures prices are exhibiting strength in early U.S. trading on Friday, following a week where prices hit a contract and multi-year high. Despite a pause in late-week trading, which is not considered bearish, the bulls maintain a solid overall near-term technical advantage, supported by an ongoing price uptrend on the daily bar chart. As of now, there are no significant early technical signals indicating a market top is imminent.
While BTC is currently trading down approximately 3% from its all-time highs, buyers remain optimistic about further gains in the future. However, BTC has thus far failed to decisively close above the $68k level, with trading volumes relatively light despite attempts for higher highs. This suggests a potential consolidation phase or a temporary halt in the upward momentum until stronger bullish momentum emerges.
Figure 3: Bitcoin price, CVD, OI and Average Predicted Funding Rate...
Continue reading this post for free, courtesy of Swissblock Insights.
No comments:
Post a Comment