In this analysis, we examine the evolving relationship between Bitcoin and the emergence of related equities as a new aspect of its adoption and growth trajectory. By comparing the performance of companies like Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) with Bitcoin's market behavior, we identify this trend as a significant evolutionary step in Bitcoin's journey towards global adoption. This development highlights a shift in investment paradigms within the Bitcoin ecosystem, illustrating a maturation process that extends beyond its initial conception.
In a previous post, we highlighted that Coinbase (COIN) significantly outperformed Bitcoin in 2023, up 410% to bitcoin’s 150%. I specifically anticipated this result would swap in 2024, especially in the first quarter. Now, as we are coming up on the end of Q1, let's revisit COIN's trajectory to assess how it has fared against Bitcoin since that initial discussion.
That forecast was accurate for the first month after the ETF launch, Bitcoin was up 4.87% YTD at that point, while Coinbase was down -9.49%.
However, since then, COIN has been on a massive run, catching and now surpassing the Bitcoin spot performance YTD, which is quite the task given bitcoin is itself up considerably.
Coinbase’s rally is not done, but it remains to be seen if it can continue to outperform Bitcoin. This week, COIN broke through major resistance (below), and has a clear path up to IPO price. The only resistance to speak of is the 61.8 retracement fibonacci and golden pocket, which covers the range of $240-250. IF it can break through that level, too, it might be off to the races. However, there are limits on COIN’s price that spot bitcoin does not have. ...
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