In the last 2 months, the Bitcoin ecosystem has experienced significant fluctuations in its fundamentals, while price has stayed relatively close to ATHs. Amidst these market shifts, Bitcoin miners have demonstrated remarkable resilience, outperforming bitcoin itself in several metrics despite facing the challenges posed by the halving event and subsequent market reactions.
This report delves into the performance of public Bitcoin miners, highlighting their adaptability in a rapidly changing economic environment and examining the stabilization of mining activities post-halving. Additionally, it explores recent trends in network traffic, focusing on the normalization of transaction fees and the impact of Layer 2 token protocols. Through detailed investor insights, we provide strategic perspectives on the implications of these developments for the price and the broader market.
In the past 50 days, Bitcoin went from a new ATH at $73,794 on March 14 to likely finding a bottom at $56,500 on May 1. A total of a 23% drop. Throughout this time, the market also experienced significant outflows from the spot ETFs and the uncertainty about miners around the halving. Despite this, miners weathered the storm fairly well with most outperforming bitcoin since the halving. On average, public miners tracked were down -6.3% in dollar terms, but up 5.1% in BTC terms.
Best: Northern Data (NB2) led the group with a significant 17.73% increase in USD terms, and a 32.20% increase in Bitcoin terms. They are a surprising standout because they do not hold any bitcoin, at least not publicly on their financial statements.
Worst: HIVE experienced the most considerable decline, down -21.7% and -12.1% in bitcoin terms, despite holding over 2000 bitcoins on their balance sheet. They have recently become more involved in providing compute for AI by moving their old Ethereum miners to that new revenue stream.
Balance Sheet Bitcoin and Stock Price: While we have not yet seen the largest miners by bitcoin on their balance sheets start to outperform, we expect that to be the case in coming months, as the halving effect really settles in and the bitcoin price recovers to make new highs.
Miner Stocks During Spot Pull Back: During this most recent weakness in the spot price of bitcoin, the miners have held up quite well as seen on the chart above. This could be for many reasons, the main one in my eyes is the ability to hedge downside risk through futures and options. They can ensure their income is much less volatile than the spot price...
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