“Inflation is like toothpaste. Once it's out, you can hardly get it back in again.” - Karl Pohl, former West German central banker
Over the course of the week, BTC has experienced a significant rally, bringing it to the critical $67k level. This level is historically important as it has previously acted as both support and resistance. The current market behaviour suggests that short-term pullbacks will be bought into, indicating a bullish sentiment in the short term.
Ultimately, we’re basically in the middle of the overall consolidation area that I’ve been paying close attention to. With the $73k level above offering resistance and the $60k level underneath offering support. If BTC can break above the $73k level, it is likely to see further gains, with potential targets at $75k.
Figure 1: BTC’s momentum through 2024.
Midweek data indicated that April’s consumer prices increased at a slower pace than anticipated. Despite this, the Federal Reserve has not provided clear guidance on the timing of potential interest rate cuts, resulting in limited declines in the dollar's value.
Federal Reserve officials have suggested maintaining high borrowing costs for an extended period as they seek more evidence of easing inflation. This indicates that policymakers are not in a hurry to reduce interest rates. However, futures markets are currently pricing in 47 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, reflecting some market expectation of monetary easing.
Figure 2: CPI and SP&500 evolution.
BTC’s daily price action has been displaying corrective behavior, characterized by lower highs and lows since falling from $75K, indicating a corrective phase within a descending channel rather than a bearish reversal. Recently, the price broke above the channel's midline and is approaching the upper boundary, signaling a potential bullish breakout that could lead to a significant rally.
With price rising above $60K, there has been a notable decline in reserves, which have fallen below the 30-day moving average, reaching a new low. This suggests that players are withdrawing their coins from exchanges in anticipation of a prolonged price rally, reflecting strong market confidence and bullish sentiment...
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