Also Bitcoin’s performance in April and the pair debt-liquidity

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more First outflow for the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Also Bitcoin’s performance in April and the pair debt-liquidity Ecoinometrics May 3   READ IN APP   Welcome to the Friday edition of the Ecoinometrics newsletter. Every week we bring you the three most important charts on the topics of macroeconomics, Bitcoin and digital assets. Today we'll cover: First outflow for the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin’s performance in April. Global liquidity is chasing the US debt. In case you missed it, here are the other topics we covered this week: Macro, especially inflation, will make or break this Bitcoin bull market. Bitcoin is underperforming in April, you can blame the ETFs for that. If you aren’t subscribed yet, hit the subscribe button, to receive this email every week directly in your inbox: Upgrade to paid First outflow for BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Bitcoin is down -15% in April. It is down -20% from the top. And yet the outflow from the Bitcoin ETFs is not massive. I mean Grayscale is bleeding coins but that’s business as usual. And yes even the BlackRock ETF (IBIT) is experiencing its first day of outlfow. But overall it isn’t that bad. You might have expected that the people who are deciding to hold Bitcoin via an ETF are more likely to be lettuce hands.  As it turns out that’s not the case.  There will be plenty more volatility on the way up so at least it is good to know the the ETF hodlers aren’t going to dump their bags as soon as there is a little dip. Bitcoin’s performance in April Ok so the final number for BTC in April is -15%. That’s not good. On the table below you can see how it compares with the monthly performance of the last 10 years. If you pay attention to this table you can see that even the best years have negative months. Like 2023 was the year of the recovery but BTC had three negative months. Same story in 2020 or 2017 or 2016. So that alone is not a big concern. Now what’s a bigger concern in my opinion is the fact that Bitcoin is not the only asset to have had a bad month. The NASDAQ had a really bad month. The SP500 is down. MicroSoft and NVIDIA are down. I mean there is a widespread problem which stems from inflation and the uncertainty about what the Federal Reserve will do about it (we discussed than on Monday and Wednesday). For now, wait and see. Global liquidity is chasing the US debt Now here is an interesting relation: the US debt and global liquidity (think central bank money, near cash and so on) go hand in hand.  Ok that’s not ground breaking news. If you have studied macro just a little bit you already know that there is some relation. But for some reason up until earlier this week I had not tried to plot the global liquidity as a function the US debt… the thing is pretty much a straight line, see for yourself below. Only in the past couple of years is the relation a bit weaker. If you look at the top right corner you can see that the US debt is growing much faster than global liquidity right now. The main reason is that central banks are fighting inflation, which is slowing down global liquidity, but the US Treasury is issuing debt like they won’t ever have to pay it back… At some point I’d expect global liquidity to catch up. When that happens it will be a big tailwind for Bitcoin and risk assets. That’s it for today. I hope you enjoyed this. We’ll be back next week with more charts. Cheers, Nick P.S. We spend the entire week, countless hours really, doing research, exploring data, surveying emerging trends, looking at charts and making infographics.   Our objective? Deliver to you the most important insights in macroeconomics, Bitcoin and digital assets. Armed with those insights you can make better investment decisions.  Are you a serious investor? Do you want to get the big picture to get on the big trades? Then click on the button below. Make Knowledge Your Asset Invite your friends and earn rewards If you enjoy Ecoinometrics, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe. Invite Friends   Like Comment Restack   © 2024 Ecoinometrics 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe