Soft landing? Try persistent inflation and a souring labor market.

͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­

	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more The full post is available to paid members — enjoy a free preview of today’s content! Prepare yourself for what's coming Soft landing? Try persistent inflation and a souring labor market. Nik Bhatia May 2 ∙ Preview   READ IN APP   Dear readers, Before settling in to write you these letters, I usually spend several hours preparing charts and bullet points so that I can deliver to you a cohesive picture of what matters in bitcoin and global macro. Generally, five to seven narratives speak the loudest from across our wheelhouse. Today, I listed out a dozen but had to stop myself after one of the busiest markets days in memory—a function of either luck, the calendar, or the building of a volatility event. We’ll only know if it’s the latter as time progresses. Bitcoin finally dipped 20% in another bout of extremely high correlation with the stock market, Treasury told us how much long-term debt will be issued, Powell did an Irish jig and waved a magic wand hoping everyone would applaud, and Japan intervened in the USDJPY cross—but that barely scratches the surface of today’s signal. Also, included are my deep and unfortunately dark thoughts about the oppressively soul-sucking financial repression being imposed on society by today’s governments—is there a light at the end of the tunnel, setting aside the interim solution of holding seizure-resistant property such as bitcoin in self custody? River is our Bitcoin exchange of choice. Securely buy Bitcoin with zero fees on recurring orders, have peace of mind thanks to their 1:1 full reserve multisig cold storage custody, and withdraw at any time. Need help? They have US-based phone support for all clients. Now introducing River Link 🔗allowing you to send Bitcoin over a text message that can be claimed to any wallet. Give a gift, pay a friend for dinner, or orange pill your friends, completely hassle-free. Use River.com/TBL to get up to $100 when you sign up and buy Bitcoin. Today’s topics Bitcoin’s price decline IBIT discount to NAV QRA: Treasury keeps pressure on the market Big question: does monetary policy bring lagged effects 9 or 24 months later? Powell refused to introduce another hike and fought off a 3% target Fed denied the financial conditions having an immediate effect on inflation Remembering the wise words of Harley Bassman on cut pricing QT surprise as Powell cites ample reserves Bank of Japan currency intervention Bad economic data Stock market reaction, oil sending a warning Corporations are worried about consumers Bitcoin Trendlines matter a lot. We flagged two levels of support last week so that you wouldn’t be surprised by the price action below $62,000:... Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer to read the rest. Become a paying subscriber of The Bitcoin Layer to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. Upgrade to paid A subscription gets you: Access to all industry-leading research and charts on bitcoin and global markets. Post comments and join the community. Support our operations.   Like Comment Restack   © 2024 Nik Bhatia 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe