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Smart Money Hints Bitcoin's Top May Already Be In

On-chain spending behavior is flashing the warning light.

Joe Consorti

May 7

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Today I have an overview of bitcoin’s current price action and on-chain spending behavior to determine where we’re at in the cycle and what the next few months might look like. I wrap with some disconcerting excess cash and bank deposit data that paints a risk-off picture and further adds to the deteriorating macro outlook.

Let’s first take a peek at my favorite chart to frame the bitcoin conversation: The Battle Between 15. That is to say, the battle inside the $15,000 range set between $72k and $57k. We have spent 10 weeks in this zone now, fighting to break above and soundly rejecting the attempts at breaking below. Bitcoin is currently trying to break above this upper bound I’ve made at ~$64,000. Judging by what S&P 500 mimi futures are doing as I write this, it will do this soon, flipping the level into support before either further consolidation or a try for the low-$70,000 level: