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Recession warning?

Pay attention to the job market

Ecoinometrics

Jul 8

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Bitcoin is struggling right now. And at first sight it is not connected to macro. The stock market is doing well.

It seems to be mostly happening on liquidation fears from the long running Mt. Gox saga.

But things could get worse. And it could get worse for everyone. The US economy could enter a recession.

Are we seeing some warning signs?

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Recession warning?

The takeaway

So far the US economy is continuing to grow in the face of recession warnings in the leading indicators.

But when we see lagging indicators also starting to sound the alarm then we should pay attention.

That's what's happening with the job market. It is still early to tell if the US is moving into a recession. But initial unemployment claims, continued claims and unemployment rate are on the rise.

If this trend continues for weeks then the economy is in trouble. This is what always happens at the beginning of a recession.

In that case, Bitcoin is set to move lower before things get better. So pay attention to how the situation evolves.

Pay attention to the job market...

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