Good morning Readers! Welcome to TBL Weekly #110 — grab a coffee, and let’s dive in. Unchained empowers you to fully control your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys and benefit from a dedicated Bitcoin security partner. Purchase bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you need to. Use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. ETH is becoming a jokeWatching the ETHBTC pair bleed out must be painful for those dual bitcoin-Ethereum holders out there. You could have had it all, but instead, you chose to try to play both sides. Bitcoin now towers over Ethereum to the tune of 4x, a ratio that we believe will only grow over time. Closing the week around $60,000 puts bitcoin a half year into a steady consolidation, one without as much volatility as in previous cycles. But the second-place cryptocurrency is melting, and it’s a wonderful development for bitcoin holders. The King will receive marginal allocations where diversified approaches once existed. Can you imagine if we had named our company The Crypto Layer? Treasuries are back in styleUS Treasuries are back above the 100 line on a trailing 12-month basis, meaning that holders of USTs are in the green over the past year. Interestingly, gold has passed the stock market over this time horizon, while bitcoin looks in its rearview mirror at the traditional investment universe with a sly smile. The rally in Treasuries has been joined by a global bond rally as central banks in Europe lead the step function lower. Global cuts strengthen the dollar, but the Fed can keep a lid on this tight financial condition with cuts of its own. That is what we’ll get next week with the first rate cut of the cycle. FOMC members meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, with Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday at 11am PST. Believe your eyes: the forward Fed Funds rate toward the end of next year is at 2.8%. Get your scissors ready! For a full breakdown, don’t miss our global macro update from Friday, complete with 21 charts and a full rundown of everything you need to know heading into next week’s rate cut. These Friday updates have become the flagship videos of our growing channel and represent my best effort to summarize the week.
And if you don’t have the 42 minutes to spare, here are some of the key insights:
Efani delivers premium mobile service with unparalleled protection against SIM swaps and privacy invasions. Safeguard your bitcoin and personal data with the industry's most advanced security measures. Protect Yourself Now. If you value your privacy and security, Efani Secure Mobile is the answer. Don’t wait until it’s too late, protect yourself today. Use code TBL at checkout for $99 off the Efani SAFE Plan. In case you missed it: TBL on YouTubeWe kicked off the week with Nik’s interview of Columbia University Law School professor and CEO of the New Civil Liberties Alliance, Philip Hamburger. They discussed the fallout of overturning Chervon, changes in judicial rights and jury access, and dangers of the administrative state. Check out— Why Overturning Chevron Matters for Bitcoin and Civil Liberties with Philip Hamburger
If you don’t have the 28 minutes to spare, here are some of the key insights:
Next, Nik broke down the 19 Benefits of Bitcoin inspired by a social media post by Daniel Batten and covered how bitcoin offers banking for the unbanked, financial equity, and protects against inflation and government overreach. Check out—19 Benefits of Bitcoin that Most People Have Never Heard About
If you don’t have the 35 minutes to spare, here are some of the key insights:
❌ DON’T WRITE YOUR SEED ON PAPER 📝 It’s estimated that ~30% of Bitcoin is lost forever. Poor seed phrase security is a big reason why. This is why we use Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools.
Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! In case you missed it: TBL on SubstackEvery week, we bring you our global events recap TBL Thinks. In our latest edition, we revealed how American car makers are pivoting in the face of Chinese EV car manufacturers and BYD’s less than $12,000 electric car. We also discussed Apple’s latest iPhone launch and its big bet on AI to draw consumers back in. We ended with 3-D printing for housing and commercial real estate, how a Walmart Supercenter’s expansion is the largest commercial 3-D project completed, and if 3-D printing has the potential to be more cost effective and faster than traditional construction. Here’s an excerpt on the looming threat American automakers face as China comes for their marketshare. “So why does the Chinese car maker BYD “Build Your Dreams” have everybody quaking in their boots? The company overtook Tesla to becomes the world’s biggest electric car company in the final quarter of 2023. BYD is selling its EV Seagull for less than $12,000—the current administration is looking to effectively ban the Chinese car company by quadrupling import tariffs from approximately 27% now to 100%.” Check out TBL Thinks here: Sneak Peak into what our Pros GotThis week, TBL teamed up with Unchained to release its big report titled “Understanding What Moves Bitcoin” which covers how liquidity impacts bitcoin, what makes bitcoin fluctuate in price, and how changes in interest rates affect bitcoin. TBL Pros received the report early but is now available to the public. Download the report for free here. Nik also published his weekly letter on “Deep Price Cuts in Real Estate” to explore the intensely bearish view on the economy. Find out why he’s so bearish by going TBL Pro. Next Week with NikIn the week ahead, the Fed kicks off its rate-cutting cycle. Whether it cuts by 25 or 50 basis points doesn’t interest us as much as what the statement says and where the committee indicates the policy rate will go next year. Wednesday will be full of vernacular to nitpick, but as always it is the market’s reaction that matters most. I personally feel quite comfortable with where we’ve guided you on rates this year. With full emotion, I held steady with my view that rates would come back down on slowing growth, inflation would subside, and cuts would arrive. Now that cuts are here and rates have un-inverted around 3.5%, my outlook has ratcheted down. I don’t know how long it’ll take, but rates will continue their path lower and eventually take out 3%. I’ll watch the data and economic anecdotes for motive to reduce my expectations to 1% yields—there’s a growing possibility of 2s trading below 2% by this time next year and bond volatility is demolished by the Fed. Bitcoin stands to benefit in such an environment. Read our incredible free report and pair it with Friday’s episode to put the pieces together on the Fed, liquidity, and bitcoin. Our videos are on major podcast platforms—take us with you on the go! Keep up with The Bitcoin Layer by following our social media! Unchained empowers you to fully control your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys and benefit from a dedicated Bitcoin security partner. Purchase bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you need to. Use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. Thanks for reading The Bitcoin Layer — for access to all content, upgrade to paid! |
Saturday, September 14, 2024
Bitcoin outshines Ethereum, rate cuts begin: TBL Weekly #110
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