Let’s temper our optimism a bit and take a contrarian stance against the prevailing sentiment dominating Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem: What if, in the end, Trump’s incoming administration turns out to be less pro-Bitcoin than projected? After all, this is politics—where everything is fair game and often serves the ultimate purpose of gaining and maintaining power.
Trump seems not to have forgotten about his new crypto fanbase and is reported to be meeting with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to discuss government personnel appointments.
When it comes to regulation and legislation, however, we’re dealing with another order of power, with different objectives, one that doesn’t depend on a single individual. Legislative timelines are cyclical and depend on the importance and urgency of the issues at hand. In the case of approving crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks, their impact is not immediate; implementation and the creation of secondary regulations take time.
Nevertheless, let the good times roll—but in risk assets, one must never let their guard down. As the indicators suggest, Bitcoin remains fundamentally strong, and that’s more important than the FOMO driven by optimism and euphoria.
Speedometers indicating the current state of BTC. The full dot represents the current reading and the white dot represents one week ago.
Henrik Zeberg Keynote at Deutsche Goldmesse 2024.
We’re excited to announce that Henrik Zeberg, Head Macro Economist at Swissblock, will be delivering a keynote at Deutsche Goldmesse 2024 in Frankfurt on November 21 & 22! Henrik will share his expertise on global macroeconomic trends and their effects on the precious metals market.
Once Bitcoin takes off in the way it has, beyond asking how far it will go, we also question how far its momentum will carry the altcoins. Eventually, Bitcoin is likely to give up some of its market dominance, paving the way for an Alt Season.
Bitcoin-Altcoin Cycle.
As we can see in our indicator, we are currently in the midst of a Bitcoin Season, although various altcoin sectors have already shown green shoots and notable bullish impulses. We need to wait for Bitcoin's market dominance to ease while it maintains its strong bullish temperament.
How far will dominance go? Currently, we've seen a slight pullback to the 60% level after reaching a three-year high. Comparing this to the previous cycle, the peak dominance was around 63%, a high reached in the post-halving period. We can interpret this as a strong long-term resistance level, which can serve as a reference for projecting a potential retracement in dominance.
Bitcoin Dominance at 60%...
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