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Bitcoin At $100k: Bull, Base, Bear Scenarios

Simulating Bitcoin Over The Next 30 Days

Ecoinometrics

Dec 9

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Bitcoin has reached $100k without any major pullback since the last time we discussed simulations.

So far, all the metrics we track in the Bitcoin Market Monitor are in the green.

What does that mean for Bitcoin's price if it continues with this momentum? What is the upside and what are the risks in the near term?

That's what we talk about today.

The Ecoinometrics newsletter gives you insights from crypto and macro data to help you make better investment decisions.

We spend hours every day gathering data, creating metrics and bringing them to life with data visualizations that allow you to quickly get to the heart of things.

We then distill all that knowledge in each issue of the newsletter with less words and more charts so that you get insights, direct to the point, in five minutes or less.

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Bitcoin At $100k: Bull, Base, Bear Scenarios

The Takeaway

Bitcoin sits in a mild bullish regime, with simulations showing a 35% chance of exceeding $110,000 in the next month, double the probability of a bearish scenario. While the outlook is positive, investors should expect occasional 20% drawdowns from price peaks even in this favourable environment.

The main risk isn't regular market volatility but potential macro shocks or market overheating that could disrupt the current stable growth pattern. For now, all major metrics remain healthy.