2025 Bitcoin Outlook: Data-Driven InsightsExplore Bitcoin's 2025 potential with a data-driven perspective, analyzing key metrics like the MVRV Z-Score, Pi Cycle Oscillator, and macroeconomic trends to uncover insights into the year ahead.
As we step into 2025, it’s time to take a measured and analytical approach to what the year might hold for Bitcoin. Taking into account on-chain, market cycle, macroeconomic data, and more for confluence, we can go beyond pure speculation to paint a data-driven picture for the coming months. MVRV Z-Score: Plenty of Upside PotentialThe MVRV Z-Score measures the ratio between Bitcoin's realized price (the average acquisition price of all BTC on the network) and its market cap. Standardizing this ratio for volatility gives us the Z-Score, which historically provides a clear picture of market cycles.
Figure 1: MVRV-Z Score shows we’re still a long way from a market cycle peak. Currently, the MVRV Z-Score suggests we still have significant upside potential. While previous cycles have seen the Z-Score reach values above 7, I believe anything above 6 indicates overextension, prompting a closer look at other metrics to identify a market peak. Presently, we’re hovering at levels comparable to May 2017—when Bitcoin was valued at only a few thousand dollars. Given the historical context, there’s room for multiple hundreds of percent in potential gains from current levels. The Pi Cycle Oscillator: Bullish Momentum ResumesAnother essential metric is the Pi Cycle Top and Bottom indicator, which tracks the 111-day and 350-day moving averages (the latter multiplied by 2). Historically, when these averages cross, it often signals a Bitcoin price peak within days.
Figure 2: Macro trend remains bullish. The distance between these two moving averages has started to trend upward again, suggesting renewed bullish momentum. While 2024 saw periods of sideways consolidation, the breakout we’re seeing now indicates that Bitcoin is entering a stronger growth phase, potentially lasting several months. The Exponential Phase of the CycleLooking at Bitcoin’s historical price action, cycles often feature a "post-halving cooldown" lasting 6–12 months before entering an exponential growth phase. Based on previous cycles, we’re nearing this breakout point. While diminishing returns are expected compared to earlier cycles, we could still see substantial gains.
Figure 3: We’re approaching the most bullish stage of the cycle when compared to previous bull runs. For context, breaking the previous all-time high of $20,000 in the 2020 cycle led to a peak near $70,000—a 3.5x increase. If we see even a conservative 2x or 3x from the last peak of $70,000, Bitcoin could realistically reach $140,000–$210,000 in this cycle. Macro Factors Supporting BTC in 2025Despite headwinds in 2024, Bitcoin performed strongly, even in the face of a strengthening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Historically, Bitcoin and the DXY move inversely, so any reversal in the DXY’s strength could further fuel Bitcoin’s upside.
Figure 4: BTC has rallied even as the DXY has increased substantially. Other macroeconomic indicators, such as high-yield credit cycles and the global M2 money supply, suggest improving conditions for Bitcoin. The contraction in the money supply seen in 2024 is expected to reverse in 2025, setting the stage for an even more favorable environment. Cycle Master Chart: A Long Way to GoThe Bitcoin Cycle Master Chart, which aggregates multiple on-chain valuation metrics, shows that Bitcoin still has considerable room to grow before reaching overvaluation. The upper boundary, currently around $190,000, continues to rise, reinforcing the outlook for sustained upward momentum.
Figure 5: Cycle Master ‘Over Valued’ level has surpassed $190,000. ConclusionCurrently, almost all data points are aligned for a bullish 2025. As always, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, however the data strongly suggests that Bitcoin’s best days may still lie ahead, even after an incredibly positive 2024. For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin 2025 - A Data Driven Outlook  Matt Lead Analyst Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Bitcoin Magazine Pro
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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. We sincerely appreciate your support and hope you found this content valuable. Please leave a like and let us know your thoughts in the comments section; we always welcome feedback from our audience!
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Friday, January 3, 2025
2025 Bitcoin Outlook: Data-Driven Insights
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