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Bitcoin in Q1, Bullish With Risks of Downside

Updated Bitcoin Simulation for Q1 2025

Ecoinometrics

Jan 29

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Despite mounting uncertainties in the stock market (is FOMO around AI stocks dying down, are tariffs going to hurt US companies, is the Trump trade waning) and on the monetary policy side (can the Fed continue to cut rates, when will global liquidity accelerate), Bitcoin has remained resilient since last month.

Unless we transition to a new broad market regime, Bitcoin will likely continue its upward trend.

Let's look at where Bitcoin might be at the end of the first quarter and what risks to consider, based on our latest simulation.

The Ecoinometrics newsletter gives you insights from crypto and macro data to help you make better investment decisions.

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Bitcoin in Q1, Bullish With Risks of Downside

The Takeaway

Bitcoin remains the best performing major asset over the last 12 months, significantly outpacing both traditional markets and other cryptocurrencies. Our simulations for Q1 2025 show strong bullish bias, with a 57% chance of Bitcoin gaining more than 10% and a 12% chance of reaching $150,000.

However, investors should prepare for volatility: there's a 16% chance of experiencing a 25% or larger drawdown during this period. Current market conditions and ETF flows support continued upward momentum, though careful position sizing remains crucial given Bitcoin's pattern of sharp corrections even during bull markets.