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"Our only limitations are those we set up in our own minds." |
— Napoleon Hill |
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Thursday American-made mailbag |
Q: Will Trump follow through on his crypto promises? |
I'd be shocked if he didn't — now that he's taken credit for bitcoin hitting $100,000, I expect he won't want to see it going much below that, so if he has to do even more than promised for crypto to keep prices up, he probably will. |
I think we saw evidence of that in this morning's New York Post report that President-elect Trump is "receptive" to the idea of starting an "America-first strategic reserve that would prioritize digital coins founded in the US, like Solana, USD Coin and Ripple." |
(Just the fact that the New York Post is covering crypto probably tells you a lot about what the next four years will be like.) |
I'd normally dismiss a reserve of "American" crypto as utterly ridiculous — what could be more un-American than the government picking industry winners or more un-crypto than the government picking crypto winners? |
But Trump seems to be leaning into his status as the first Crypto President and crypto prices will be an obvious barometer of his success in that regard, so I wouldn't bet against any proposal that is likely to make them go higher. |
Also, Eric Trump owns SUI. |
There's probably no turning back for a Trump family that's gotten that deep in the weeds. |
Q: How's bitcoin doing vs. gold? |
Less good than I would have guessed before looking it up: At a $1.95 trillion market cap, all the bitcoin in the world would only buy you 10.5% of all the gold in the world. |
That is a substantial change from the 6% it would have bought last January, but it's barely changed from the 10% ratio it hit in 2017. |
On a longer-term chart, it looks like bitcoin has hardly gained on gold at all. |
Trump could presumably change that by signing a bitcoin strategic reserve into law. |
Q: How's MicroStrategy's average price in bitcoin doing? |
I was surprised to learn that it's all the way up to $62,000 now — which seems not that far in the money? |
It will probably be less in the money soon: Michael Saylor has said that he will always be buying bitcoin at the top and he intends to buy it in ever larger quantities, so his average price is likely to continue escalating quickly. |
If so, we should soon be at the point where a minor pullback in bitcoin will make MicroStrategy underwater on its bitcoin holdings. |
Q: Does it matter if MicroStrategy is underwater on its bitcoin? |
Not really — it currently has just $7.2 billion of convertible debt outstanding vs. $45 billion of assets (i.e., bitcoin), so it won't be in any danger of having to sell. |
But will people still be happy to pay 2x NAV for MSTR when the pile of bitcoin they're buying into was purchased at an above-market price? |
They might be, because there's no formal connection between the average price of MicroStrategy's BTC and its NAV. |
But I do think it's a risk to sentiment for both MSTR and BTC if MicroStrategy is suddenly underwater. |
Q: Is Ripple Labs doing a reverse MicroStrategy? |
Ripple Labs appears to be buying its own equity at an 80% discount to the value of its XRP holdings — the opposite of what MicroStrategy is doing (selling overpriced equity to buy relatively underpriced BTC). |
I wonder if the sellers of Ripple Labs' equity have looked at MicroStrategy's share price — because you have to think the stock market would value it much higher than they do. |
Ripple Labs owns something like $140 billion worth of XRP and if you put MicroStrategy's 2x NAV multiple on that number, equity in Ripple Labs would be worth $280 billion, making Ripple Labs more than 3x larger than MicroStrategy. |
If Ripple Labs went straight into the S&P 500 at that valuation, it would be the index's 26th largest component, just ahead of Chevron, Coca-Cola, Merck and Wells Fargo. |
Seems crazy, but Coca-Cola makes sugared water, so I guess it's possible? |
Q: Why is XRP worth 2x Solana? |
I don't know because in the three years I've been writing about crypto I've never once heard anyone in the industry take it seriously, so I never bothered to look into it. |
But XRP is now the third most valuable crypto token and its army of retail believers have vastly outperformed the professionals who've long dismissed them. |
So I suppose we now have to stop debating whether Solana will pass ETH and start debating whether XRP will? |
The bull case, from what I can gather on X, is that XRP is plotting to become the primary venue for the tokenized real-world assets that might soon be coming onchain if Trump keeps his promise on crypto-friendly legislation. |
In theory, RWAs are a bigger addressable market than the memecoins that have driven Solana's resurgence, so maybe there's some sense to it. |
I'm not sure why RWAs would happen on XRP instead of somewhere in the Ethereum ecosystem. But being an "American-made" crypto will probably help over the next four years, at least. |
Even so, it seems like there will have to be a lot of trading on XRP to justify its $330 billion market capitalization — it only costs about 0.00001 XRP to transact. |
But here's a reminder that in 2017, XRP was briefly worth more than bitcoin, so who's to say it can't soon be worth more than ETH? |
After Monday, there will be no limitations to such crypto thinking. |
— Byron Gilliam |
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The State of Ethereum Today |
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The Blockworks Research analysts cover Ethereum's REV, the OP Collective's business model and the splintering of the Ethereum community. Find out what impacts they think ETF flows might have on ETH in 2025. |
Listen to 0xResearch on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or YouTube. |
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This March, Michael Saylor, Mohamed El-Erian, and Mike Novogratz will share their insights on the shifting dynamics of global markets. From macroeconomic trends to the integration of digital assets, DAS NYC is the meeting point for allocators, fund managers, and institutional leaders. |
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 | Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas |  |
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Litecoin ETF now has all the boxes checked. The first alt coin ETF of 2025 is about to be on the clock. I don't see any reason why this would be withdrawn either given SEC gave comments on the S-1, litecoin is seen as commodity and there's new SEC sheriff in town. |  Nate Geraci @NateGeraci
Nasdaq files 19b-4 to list & trade Canary Litecoin ETF... Things heating up. |
| | | 4:59 PM • Jan 16, 2025 | | | | | | 579 Likes 138 Retweets | 42 Replies |
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 | Matt Hougan @Matt_Hougan | |
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On my first road trip of the year speaking with traditional investors. One takeaway: The change in Washington's attitude toward crypto is not priced in. The reason is, it's hard for people outside of crypto to imagine just how oppressive the environment has been. Unless you've… x.com/i/web/status/1… | | | 2:49 PM • Jan 16, 2025 | | | | | | 423 Likes 73 Retweets | 22 Replies |
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