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Bears and Bulls Battling It Out: TBL Weekly #133

Nik Bhatia, Augustine Carrasco, and Demian Schatt

Mar 22

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Good morning Readers!

This past week, bears and bulls resumed their battle for the throne, but this time, Donald Trump was not the only influence—we also had the Fed step in to give each camp firepower for their investment theses. As we close the first quarter of 2025, uncertainty about the economic outlook in the US seems to be more than just breathing…it is thriving. This economic uncertainty has been perfectly displayed in markets since the latter half of February this year. Looking at daily changes in the S&P 500, we have arrived at a period of noise lately, with an increasing number of 1% days (both positive and negative) creating the norm in markets for February and March:

We’ve now seen the same number of -1% daily changes in the past two months than we saw during all of 2024—what’s more, the VIX reached a YTD high earlier this month. Needless to say, markets are experiencing some schizophrenia. As a result, it is essential that we stick to our fundamentals and provide you guys with some clarity amidst these tremulous markets. Here’s what we will look at today:

How TBL Liquidity and its components are acting during the uncertainty, and how that is tying into the bitcoin price and stock market
Highlights on the Fed’s and market’s economic outlook
A review of US economic vitals

So, without further ado, grab a coffee, and let’s dive into TBL Weekly #133.

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