The size of the ETF outflows triggered by last week's risk-off event is large, the largest outflow sequence on record since the ETFs launched last year. That has been putting our Bitcoin price model based on ETF flows to the test. As it turns out, the model is solid. The current trend is telling us something about how sustainable Bitcoin's current price level is. Let's dig into this. The Ecoinometrics newsletter gives you insights from crypto and macro data to help you make better investment decisions. We spend hours every day gathering data, creating metrics and bringing them to life with data visualizations that allow you to quickly get to the heart of things. We then distill all that knowledge in each issue of the newsletter with less words and more charts so that you get insights, direct to the point, in five minutes or less. Join more than 30,000 investors here: Done? Thanks! That’s great! Now let’s dive in. Bitcoin at Crossroads: ETF Outflows Signal Potential Price PressureThe TakeawayFebruary ended with Bitcoin's first significant ETF outflows (39k BTC) since launch, resulting in a 16% price drop. Our ETF flow model remains valid, with each 10,000 BTC of monthly flow still correlating to a 4% price change. These outflows represent only 7% of total ETF holdings, resetting to January levels. Bitcoin's current price (~$87,000) sits above model predictions ($77,000), suggesting likely consolidation in the $70-77K range without renewed inflows. ETF Flow Model Validated By February Outflows...Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app |
Wednesday, March 5, 2025
Bitcoin at Crossroads: ETF Outflows Signal Potential Price Pressure
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