Early Signs of RecoveryBitcoin's rally from the 1-year moving average signals early recovery momentum.
News HeadlinesPrice ActionIn recent weeks, we have been highlighting in these Weekly Alpha newsletters the importance of the 1-year moving average for $BTC as technical support. This key moving average has historically always acted as major support in bull markets. When it finally breaks, Bitcoin then falls into a bear market. Over the past week we have seen price tap it twice, and thankfully for the bulls we are starting to see $BTC move up away from it.
Figure 1: BTC now rallying from its 1-year moving average. The next target to the upside is now the 200-day moving average, which is currently at $87,500. If $BTC can stay above the 200-day moving average for more than just a few days, it will bring back some much needed confidence to the market. The Big Story: Bitcoin Weakly Correlated To GoldBitcoin is increasingly behaving like tech stocks, not gold, according to Franklin Templeton's latest analysis. A fresh report from Franklin Templeton, titled “When Gold Zigged, Bitcoin Moonwalked,” scrutinizes the myth of Bitcoin as “digital gold.” By reviewing three years of data, the report found that Bitcoin’s price rarely aligns with gold. Its correlation with the precious metal has stayed below 0.3 in rolling 90-day periods, suggesting the two assets don’t usually follow the same trends. However, is the 0.3 correlation data point the full story? By using Bitcoin Magazine Pro charts we can analyze this ourselves and draw our own conclusions. The chart below shows a 90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and Gold over the past two years:
Figure 2: Bitcoin and Gold 90-day rolling correlation. Interpreting the chart for correlation insightThe price of $BTC is shown by the black line while the price of Gold is shown by the orange line. Periods of positive correlation over a 90-day rolling period are highlighted by the green bars. Periods of negative correlation over a 90-day rolling period are highlighted by the red bars. Correlation is a statistical measure that measures the strength of the relationship between two assets. It ranges from -1 to 1. A coefficient of 1 would mean the assets are moving together, a coefficient of -1 would mean they are moving in opposite directions. A correlation coefficient of zero means that there is no relationship between the two variables. The highest correlation reached was 0.37 in October 2024. However, we do not think this correlation number tells the whole story. Stepping back from individual correlation numbers that occur and looking at the entire data set on the chart, it is clear that there is broad correlation trend over the two year period. Both Bitcoin and Gold broadly trend up in H1 2024 after ranging together for most of 2023. The correlation faded in 2025 as Gold rallied while Bitcoin fell back. It is this recent price action that has been grabbing the headlines and getting goldbugs excited. However, with Global Liquidity increasing at a rapid rate, along with clear institutional demand for Bitcoin, we anticipate that Bitcoin will be trending higher in Q2 and Q3 2025.
Figure 3: Global Liquidity has been climbing higher in recent months. While there may be differences in price fluctuations in the short term, both Gold and Bitcoin offer benefits as hard assets in a world where governments continue to inject more fiat money into the global financial system. So we think the broad trend of correlation is possible for Gold and Bitcoin moving forward. Live Chart Review: Short Term Holder Realized Price
Figure 4: Short Term Holder Realized Price What is Short Term Holder Realized Price?The Bitcoin Short Term Holder (STH) Realized Price is an onchain metric that represents the average acquisition price of $BTC for investors who are considered short-term holders. The metric is defined by the movement of coins that have been held in addresses for less than 155 days. It reflects the cost basis of more recent market entrants, who are often more sensitive to price fluctuations and may demonstrate different behavior compared to long-term holders. For example, these short term holders will likely have a higher propensity to sell during periods of volatility or price declines. Historically, in Bitcoin bull markets, price broadly trends ABOVE the Short-Term Holder Realized Price. When it dips below it can highlight the market is distressed in the short term. Latest dataCurrently, $BTC is once again below the Short-Term Holder Realized Price. Short-Term Holder Realized Price: $92,763 $BTC: $84,500 This could be another opportunity to buy bitcoin at a good value price before it climbs back up above the Short-Term Holder Realized Price. If it does, it will be the fifth time that it has done so this bull market cycle. Speak again soon. The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team. Bitcoin Magazine Pro
For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can't get anywhere else. We don't just provide data for data's sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload. Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:
Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market! 🎁 Special Offer: Use Code: BMPRO For 10% OFF All Bitcoin Conference Tickets
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. We sincerely appreciate your support and hope you found this content valuable. Please leave a like and let us know your thoughts in the comments section; we always welcome feedback from our audience!
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Monday, April 14, 2025
Early Signs of Recovery
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