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One Week of "Peace" in a Volatile Year: TBL Weekly #137

Augustine Carrasco and Nik Bhatia

Apr 19

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Dear Readers,

This week’s market action fell short of typical Trump-Era movements, something we are not used to since 2025 started. After the most recent test of a five-year upward-trending support line in the S&P 500…

…which, when compared to 2022’s bear market, has proven more vicious, reaching a 20% downturn months faster than 2022’s drawdown…

…equities have managed to remain above that support line. More pain will arise if we continue to see bond market volatility like the episode seen a couple of weeks ago:

In today’s article, we will analyze:

What TBL Liquidity is telling us about the potential for continued market volatility and the conditions for bitcoin
Gold’s incredible bull run
US dollar weakness and its source

So, without further ado, let’s dive into TBL Weekly #137.

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Weekly Monitor

Weekly Analysis

TBL Liquidity and Future Expectations

After reaching a near 50-level a couple of weeks ago (not quite touching it), TBL Liquidity has made a roaring comeback. Just look at TBL Liquidity next to the S&P 500—all of a sudden, that bounce from the 5-year support line shown earlier starts to make a lot more sense:...

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