A look into some short-term targets for bitcoin.

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Bitcoin Cycle Analysis A look into some short-term targets for bitcoin. Johan Bergman Jun 2 ∙ Preview   READ IN APP   With bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, we’ve started receiving messages from people around us asking what to do. This post aims to provide ideas on how to think about bitcoin cycles and navigate the current one. We are sailing on the waves of bitcoin cycles, and we must adjust our sails appropriately—deploying enough sails to prevent stalling when there’s little wind, yet being cautious not to deploy too many, risking capsizing during volatile storms. Mayer Multiple The Mayer Multiple is the ratio between bitcoin’s market price and its 200-day moving average. For instance, if the ratio is 1.2, it means the 200-day moving average is around $100,000, while the market price of bitcoin is $120,000. When deriving historical averages for this multiple, as well as standard deviation channels (using Z-scores), one can identify statistically significant points and effectively compare cycles even when the prices differ significantly. It’s not our intention to provide a lesson in statistics, but to make our point clearly, we must briefly explain some basics. A Z-score of zero indicates the Mayer multiple is exactly at its historical average: In this case, the Mayer Multiple’s historical average (as seen from the chart above) lies at 1.34, which itself is insightful: it implies that, on average, bitcoin trades roughly 34% above its 200-day moving average. The red dotted line in the chart’s oscillator above (bottom pane) represents the historical average + 1.5 standard deviations. In a normal distribution, this means roughly 93% of data points fall below this level. The orange dotted line represents +1 standard deviation, indicating approximately 84% of data points fall below this threshold. To translate this into understandable figures, here’s a table: Looking at the chart above, notice previous cycles where the multiple exceeded the red dotted line. In 2017, it touched this mark three times, with the breakout above it marking the cycle’s peak. In 2019, the multiple briefly reached the mark but did not sustain above it, indicating a local top. Early in 2021, the oscillator again surpassed this threshold. Today, this cycle differs from previous ones. Bitcoin is currently oscillating between -1 and +1 standard deviations. It periodically becomes overbought and oversold, but nothing extraordinary, consistently following a gradual stair-stepping pattern. What does this imply? According to this metric, bitcoin’s price could appreciate to approximately $161,000 without becoming extremely overheated. Could it be classified as overbought at that level? Yes, that’s likely. Might we see a local peak, followed by consolidation and a potential correction? Probably. It’s essential to remember that the 200-day moving average is, by definition, a moving figure. As the market price climbs over extended periods, the moving average gradually rises, adjusting potential correction and retracement targets accordingly. If the price continues climbing toward $161,000, could it signal the cycle’s peak? It could, but not necessarily. Let’s explore additional metrics before drawing any definitive conclusions. In the first 100 days of the new administration, pro-bitcoin rhetoric has turned into policy. A new executive order established a national strategic bitcoin reserve and directed the Treasury and Commerce departments to explore growing the reserve within a budget-neutral framework. Unchained and the Bitcoin Policy Institute are hosting a live panel with Congressman Nick Begich, BPI Executive Director Matthew Pines, and Unchained’s Joe Burnett—and releasing a full report that explains what’s happening and why it matters. In this session, you’ll learn: Why the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Executive Order is a policy milestone What new legislative and enforcement shifts mean for bitcoin’s future How to position yourself before the window closes Register for the June 3 event and read the full 100 Days Brief Register Here The Financial Freedom Report is a weekly newsletter from the Human Rights Foundation (HRF) that tracks how authoritarian regimes weaponize money to control their populations and suppress dissent. It also spotlights how freedom technologies like Bitcoin are helping everyday people reclaim their financial independence and freedom. A one-of-a-kind newsletter connecting the dots between financial repression, geopolitics, and emerging tech. Smart macro analysts don’t just watch the Fed. They watch the world. Subscribe to the Newsletter Today Blockstream Jade Plus is the easiest, most secure way to protect your Bitcoin—perfect for beginners and pros alike. With a sleek design, simple setup, and step-by-step instructions, you'll be securing your Bitcoin in minutes. Seamlessly pair with the Blockstream Green app on mobile or desktop for smooth onboarding. As your stack grows, Jade Plus grows with you—unlock features like the air-gapped JadeLink Storage Device or QR Mode for cable-free transactions using the built-in camera. Want more security? Jade Plus supports multisig wallets with apps like Blockstream Green, Electrum, Sparrow, and Specter. Protect your Bitcoin, sleep better, stack harder. Use code: TBL for 10% off. Take Control of Your Bitcoin Today Market Value Versus Realized Value The previous metric was based solely on price. For a more reliable assessment, it’s better to utilize different types of datasets for comparison. MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is familiar to TBL Pro members. It’s the ratio between the Market Price and the Realized Price (for a quick reminder, you could revisit the on-chain section of our Mean Median Mode report): We’ve employed the same approach here as in the Mayer Multiple part. The MVRV is essentially a multiple of the Realized Price. The oscillator displays a similar pattern to the Mayer Multiple but has some key differences, primarily due to how the realized price changes. ... Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer to unlock the rest. Become a paying subscriber of The Bitcoin Layer to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. 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