2-Year MVRV Z-Score: Under 1, signals room for growth, adapts to Bitcoin’s maturing market.

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential 2-Year MVRV Z-Score: Under 1, signals room for growth, adapts to Bitcoin’s maturing market. Bitcoin Magazine Pro Jun 6   READ IN APP   Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV ratio, remains one of the most reliable on-chain indicators for identifying local and macro tops and bottoms across every BTC cycle. By isolating data across different investor cohorts and adapting historical benchmarks to modern market conditions, we can generate more accurate insights into where Bitcoin may be headed next. The MVRV Ratio The MVRV Ratio compares Bitcoin’s market price to its realized price, essentially the average cost basis for all coins in the network. As of writing, BTC trades around $105,000 while the realized price floats near $47,000, putting the raw MVRV at 2.26. The Z-Score version of MVRV standardizes this ratio based on historical volatility, enabling clearer comparisons across different market cycles. Figure 1: Historically, the MVRV Ratio and the MVRV Z-Score have accurately identified cycle peaks and bottoms. View Live Chart Short-Term Holders Short-term holders, defined as those holding Bitcoin for 155 days or less, currently have a realized price near $97,000. This metric often acts as dynamic support in bull markets and resistance in bear markets. Notably, when the Short Term Holder MVRV hits 1.33, local tops have historically occurred, as seen several times in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles. So far in the current cycle, this threshold has already been touched four times, each followed by modest retracements. Figure 2: Short Term Holder MVRV reaching 1.33 in more recent cycles has aligned with local tops. View Live Chart Long-Term Holders Long-term holders, who’ve held BTC for more than 155 days, currently have an average cost basis of just $33,500, putting their MVRV at 3.11. Historically, Long Term Holder MVRV values have reached as high as 12 during major peaks. That said, we’re observing a trend of diminishing multiples each cycle. Figure 3: Achieving a Long Term Holder MVRV value of 8 could extrapolate to a BTC price in excess of $300,000. View Live Chart A key resistance band now sits between 7.5 and 8.5, a zone that has defined bull tops and pre-bear retracements in every cycle since 2011. If the current growth of the realized price ($40/day) continues for another 140–150 days, matching previous cycle lengths, we could see it reach somewhere in the region of $40,000. A peak MVRV of 8 would imply a price near $320,000. Discover how Meanwhile can help you plan for the future—offering life insurance designed to preserve and grow your wealth in Bitcoin. GET FREE REPORT A Smarter Market Compass Unlike static all-time metrics, the 2-Year Rolling MVRV Z-Score adapts to evolving market dynamics. By recalculating average extremes over a rolling window, it smooths out Bitcoin’s natural volatility decay as it matures. Historically, this version has signaled overbought conditions when reaching levels above 3, and prime accumulation zones when dipping below -1. Currently sitting under 1, this metric suggests that substantial upside remains. Figure 4: The current 2-Year Rolling MVRV Z-Score suggests more positive price action ahead. View Live Chart Timing & Targets A view of the BTC Growth Since Cycle Lows chart illustrates that BTC is now approximately 925 days removed from its last major cycle low. Historical comparisons to previous bull markets suggest we may be around 140 to 150 days away from a potential top, with both the 2017 and 2021 peaks occurring around 1,060 to 1,070 days after their respective lows. While not deterministic, this alignment reinforces the broader picture of where we are in the cycle. If realized price trends and MVRV thresholds continue on current trajectories, late Q3 to early Q4 2025 may bring final euphoric moves. Figure 5: Will the current cycle continue to exhibit growth patterns similar to those of the previous two cycles? View Live Chart Conclusion The MVRV ratio and its derivatives remain essential tools for analyzing Bitcoin market behavior, providing clear markers for both accumulation and distribution. Whether observing short-term holders hovering near local top thresholds, long-term holders nearing historically significant resistance zones, or adaptive metrics like the 2-Year Rolling MVRV Z-Score signaling plenty of runway left, these data points should be used in confluence. No single metric should be relied upon to predict tops or bottoms in isolation, but taken together, they offer a powerful lens through which to interpret the macro trend. As the market matures and volatility declines, adaptive metrics will become even more crucial in staying ahead of the curve. For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin: MVRV Key Update Matt Crosby Lead Analyst - Bitcoin Magazine Pro Bitcoin Magazine Pro For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can't get anywhere else. GO TO FREE CHARTS SIGN UP NOW We don't just provide data for data's sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload. Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey: Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis. Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights. Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights. Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve. Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market! Subscribed Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. We sincerely appreciate your support and hope you found this content valuable. Please leave a like and let us know your thoughts in the comments section; we always welcome feedback from our audience! Share Like & Comment Share Bitcoin Magazine Pro   Like Comment Restack   © 2025 BTC Inc. 438 Houston Street, Suite 257, Nashville, TN 37203 Unsubscribe