| Dear Readers, This week, we analyze the main reasons why risk assets are struggling to confidently break above their all-time highs. Welcome back to another edition of Mean Median Mode—a quantitative risk report summarizing bitcoin price analysis and global macro narratives to position investors and bitcoin watchers with the data that matters. So, without further ado, here’s our latest risk report.
Report’s Main Highlight Bitcoin: Technical Analysis TBL Liquidity Analysis Bitcoin: Correlation Analysis Bitcoin: On-Chain Analytics US Rates Analysis Fed Watch Money Market Analysis US Economy Analysis
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Given a weaker dollar and bond market stabilization, liquidity remains ample, which forces us to push our next TBL Liquidity Cycle trough to late July. As expected, the back-end of the curve has been oversold for quite some time now, which was followed by a bull steepener over the past couple of weeks. There’s still some angst around the back-end of the curve due to continued fiscal worries, but this could actually be good for risk assets as portfolio managers refrain from exchanging their equities or bitcoin for high-duration assets like bonds. We continue to hold that the US consumer remains strong, given labor market resilience. This is why we believe the Fed (or at least Chairman Powell) has been placing a lot more emphasis on the inflation side of its dual mandate. The latest Summary of Economic Projections showed more hawkish board members across 2025, 2026, and 2027.
The price of bitcoin failed to build a structure that would support reaching new all-time highs in the coming weeks. The bombing of Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities didn’t help, but to be honest, there was already some weakness in the price action in the run-up to the attack, which we’ll highlight in the Low Time Frame section. What does look promising is the price action following the ceasefire announcement on Monday. It’s time to shift gears and start preparing for what might come next. In previous reports, we looked at possible targets if the uptrend continues. However, it’s important to also consider a potential bear scenario. We’re seeing a failed attempt to reach new all-time highs, and the RSI remains below the RSI-based moving average.
The price bounced nicely off the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH CB) at around $98,000. Remember, in a bull market, it’s very normal for price to at least pull back to the STH CB. You should almost always expect a retrace to this level. It’s also fair to say that as long as we stay above the STH CB, you can remain bullish. That said, we shouldn’t ignore the possibility of a third rejection at the range high, and we should be mentally prepared in case the STH CB fails to hold. Continuation remains the most probable outcome, meaning the price is likely to keep trading within the range formed during the first three months of this move—between $92,000 and $107,000. The 200-Day Moving Average is around $95,000, so that level could also be briefly lost. Losing the $92,000 level would be a signal to turn more defensive. This wouldn’t necessarily mark the end of the bull run, but it would indicate insufficient strength to defend key levels. It would simply reflect a lack of buying pressure against overwhelming selling. At this moment, $85,000 looks like the line in the sand for the bulls. Over the past two years, we haven’t lost the equivalent of that level. It aligns with the -1σ of the STH CB and the 50-Week Moving Average. What does that mean? In August 2023, August 2024, and April 2025, we touched those levels but managed to hold above them. If we were to lose $85,000, it would be the first time since this uptrend began in 2023—an event that would warrant a serious reassessment of how this cycle might unfold. That said, this isn’t our base case. It’s simply about being mentally prepared for what could happen if global events escalate further. As long as we hold above the STH CB, that would be a strong sign during uncertain times. Otherwise, we’d like to see the price hold above $92,000 and form a higher low.
On the low time frame chart, you can see three arrows. In the previous risk report, we discussed the price action around arrow number 1. We saw a sell-off followed by a candle with a long wick, indicating that buyers stepped in, resulting in a surge above the level from which the price had sold off. A failed bearish setup is typically bullish. What we saw on June 20 was essentially the opposite. The first failed attempt at new all-time highs occurred on the 16th, when price formed a lower high on the low time frame. The weakness became painfully clear on the 20th, as price rose and then fell back—not only retracing the move but also dropping below the level from which the rally had begun.
Arrow number 3 represents the moment it became clear that President Trump had given the order to destroy three of Iran’s major nuclear enrichment facilities. This happened on a Sunday, when markets are typically illiquid. The combination of rising geopolitical tensions—including fears of a third world war, a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and a possible spike in oil prices and inflation—prompted investors and algorithms to start selling risk assets. And because bitcoin is the only globally traded asset of size that operates 24/7, it tends to be used by investors as a hedge against possible short-term economic shocks. Following the ceasefire (which turned out not to be a true ceasefire), price staged a strong recovery, showing that bulls are still in control. As we head into U.S. trading hours, we’re seeing a positive Coinbase spot premium—which is a good sign—and a 4-hour RSI that is somewhat elevated but not yet overbought.
Since the discovery of our TBL Liquidity cycle, we have stepped back to observe just how well it works in real time, and so far, we are seeing two fairly reasonable observations.
As noted in previous studies, the distance between two peaks (or two troughs) averages roughly 84 days—at least over the past 3 years. Our last trough took place in mid-April (specifically, April 13th). We are now almost 73 days removed from that last TBL Liquidity Cycle bottom. In other words, we have nearly elapsed our estimated time between troughs, but our cycle still shows “sell” signals. Thus, it is important to note our 68% confidence interval, where we add 1 standard deviation to either side of our 84-day estimate, which leaves us 68% confident that the next trough will be seen, at the latest, near the 107-day mark. In other words, despite our indicator still showing a sell signal, we remain well within reasonable levels of typical cycles. However, we may need to re-adjust our next trough to the latter half of July, given weakness in the US dollar, as well as strength in the bond market. Also worth noting is that in previous observations throughout the last 3 years, we have seen peak-to-peak and trough-to-trough separations of as much as 113 days, which is just further reinforcement that our model is still within range of a reasonable liquidity cycle.
We continue to see bitcoin consolidate between the $100,000-$110,000 price range, while our indicator remains near its sell signal. Liquidity has remained ample, given dollar weakness as well as stability in long-term US Treasuries. So, shouldn’t this be good for risk assets? ...
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