Also Bitcoin ETFs Are Gaining on Gold in 2025’s Flow Race & Rising Debt, Rising Rates, Shrinking Dollar

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Bitcoin Hits $119K And ETF Flows Say There’s More Room to Run Also Bitcoin ETFs Are Gaining on Gold in 2025’s Flow Race & Rising Debt, Rising Rates, Shrinking Dollar Ecoinometrics Jul 11   READ IN APP   Welcome to Ecoinometrics' Friday edition. Each week, we analyze the three most critical market signals impacting Bitcoin and macro assets, delivering institutional-grade insights through data-driven charts and analysis. Today we'll cover: Bitcoin Hits $119K And ETF Flows Say There’s More Room to Run Bitcoin ETFs Are Gaining on Gold in 2025’s Flow Race Rising Debt, Rising Rates, Shrinking Dollar The common thread? Investors are positioning for a regime where hard assets matter. Bitcoin and gold are both seeing strong inflows as demand builds for stores of value outside fiat. Meanwhile, rising U.S. debt and interest costs are reinforcing that trend. This is not just fuelling price moves, but shifting capital allocation at a structural level. In case you missed it, here are the other topics we covered this week: Bitcoin Improves Portfolio Performance Even in Risk-Adjusted Terms Ecoinometrics · Jul 7 Read full story Bitcoin Treasury Stocks Run on Vibes Ecoinometrics · Jul 9 Read full story Essential Decision-Making Tools Bitcoin Market Monitor - Key Drivers in Five Charts: Bitcoin Market Monitor Ecoinometrics · November 18, 2024 Read full story Bitcoin Market Forecast - Probability Scenarios & Risk Metrics: Bitcoin Market Forecast Ecoinometrics · December 6, 2024 Read full story Get these professional-grade insights delivered to your inbox: Upgrade to paid Bitcoin Hits $119K And ETF Flows Say There’s More Room to Run Bitcoin just made a new all-time high. This breakout has been building for weeks. Macro conditions were supportive. ETF flows kept trending positive. And now we’re here: $119K, exactly in line with the target price our ETF flows model projected earlier this week. So the question isn’t whether we’re breaking out. The question is: how far can we go in the short term? According to our ETF flows model, Bitcoin’s price should be around $124K today based on cumulative ETF inflows. We aren’t far from that already. But the 1-sigma range of the model suggests we could reasonably see $130K before hitting resistance. That’s not just hopium. It’s based on the same flows that have driven the entire price channel higher over the past few months. And the flows are still coming in. This gives us a fundamentally grounded upside target. This is not a pure guess based on the narrative, this is an input-driven model pointing to more room to run. Bitcoin vs ETF Flows Model: Price is tracking just below model expectations at $124K. Based on current flows, the 1-sigma range extends to $130K. As long as net inflows remain strong, the upside target drifts higher. Bitcoin ETFs Are Gaining on Gold in 2025’s Flow Race Bitcoin had a slower start to the year compared to gold. That’s not surprising. Even though it’s often called digital gold, Bitcoin behaves more like a risk-on asset when macro forces are in the driver’s seat. So while gold benefitted from safe-haven flows and a multi-year bid for hard assets, Bitcoin was lagging behind. But when Bitcoin catches up, it moves fast. Over the past few months, Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in $13.5 billion in net inflows, about 70% of gold’s $19.2 billion year-to-date. If risk-on sentiment persists through the second half of the year, Bitcoin could easily overtake gold in total ETF flows. That matters. ETF demand has become the primary driver of Bitcoin’s price action in 2025. A strong inflow trend is a strong tailwind for price. It also signals a shift in how capital allocators view Bitcoin. It’s no longer just a speculative asset, it’s now competing directly with gold in portfolios, and doing so with stronger momentum. Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $13.5B in net inflows year-to-date, 70% of gold’s total. If current momentum holds, Bitcoin could surpass gold ETF flows by year-end. Rising Debt, Rising Rates, Shrinking Dollar The latest fiscal package just passed, adding an estimated $3.4 trillion to the U.S. deficit over the next decade. For context, the net federal deficit in 2024 was already $1.8 trillion. The U.S. isn’t on a sustainable fiscal path. It keeps borrowing more to fund persistent deficits, and the result is a growing debt pile. This isn’t new. Over the past 20 years, federal debt has increased by about $1.4 trillion per year on average. What’s more striking is how the growth rate keeps accelerating after every major crisis, first after 2008, then again post-COVID. That’s a known dynamic: deficits swell during hard times, but spending rarely comes back down during good times. The result is structurally higher debt levels, regardless of the cycle. What’s changed lately is the cost of that debt. The average interest rate on U.S. debt is now at its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. So not only is the government borrowing more, it’s paying more to service the debt. That’s a dangerous feedback loop. Rising interest payments widen the deficit, which leads to more borrowing, which pushes rates even higher. There are only a few ways out of that trap and most of them involve some form of currency debasement. Let inflation run a bit hotter. Get the Fed to finance more debt. And over time, the purchasing power of the dollar erodes. That’s why discerning investors are leaning into hard assets: gold, and increasingly, Bitcoin. U.S. debt has climbed steadily for two decades, but now the average interest rate is rising too. That means higher servicing costs and greater fiscal pressure, adding fuel to the long-term case for hard assets. That's it for today. Thanks for reading. Cheers, Nick P.S. Every week, our team conducts extensive research analyzing market data, tracking emerging trends, and creating professional-grade charts and analysis. Our mission: Deliver actionable macro and Bitcoin insights that help institutional investors and financial advisors make better-informed decisions. Ready for institutional-grade research that puts you ahead of the market? Click below to access our premium insights. Upgrade to paid Invite your friends and earn rewards If you enjoy Ecoinometrics, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe. Invite Friends   Like Comment Restack   © 2025 Ecoinometrics 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe