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Ground Control to Major Tom

Far above the moon, planet Earth is blue

Johan Bergman

Jul 14

∙

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On The Move

This letter will be brief. We’ve titled our recent risk report ‘Time to Move,’ which turned out to be exactly that. Price broke out to the upside, and now the market is ‘On the Move.’ We’re in price discovery mode. It has only been a couple of days, which means it’s too soon to start analysing the different dynamics. Let’s give the market a week or two to really see if holders are taking profit at these new levels and in what capacity.

I wanted to share one of many lessons I learned from my father, which I believe he learned from his father, which turned out to be a quote from one of the Founding Fathers of the United States of America:

“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.” – Benjamin Franklin

This is the perfect time to prepare yourself mentally for what might come next. To some of you, this note may sound bullish, but the intention is to stay grounded in the most likely scenario and not get swept away by the moonshot narratives. If you’ve been around long enough, you probably have an idea of what you’ll hear in the coming weeks and months. When everyone turns bullish at all-time highs, you’ll see people quitting their jobs, you’ll read about ‘omega candles loading’ and ‘BTC reaching $1,000,000 before year-end’.

You could almost put all these takes on a bingo card and strike them off one by one.

To be clear, this is not us saying it won’t happen because we don’t know what the future will bring. But we do know how to analyze the market, and we know where to look for data that can give us hints about what’s probable. That’s where we want to focus in this letter. We’re not going to look at extreme possibilities, but rather at what the most probable outcome will be for this next leg up.

At $118,000 UPDATE PRICE bitcoin, the boom is still just beginning. Are you positioned for a decade-long rush?

Join Tuur Demeester and Unchained for a high-signal briefing on where bitcoin’s macro momentum is coming from—and how to act on it. Institutions are accumulating. Onchain metrics point to growing bullish momentum, the Fed’s role in the current political climate is in flux.

Featuring a macro update from Tuur and a clinic on self-custody from Unchained’s Tyler Campbell, this is your chance to align your bitcoin strategy with what’s next.

🗓 Tuesday, July 22 at 1PM CT

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Vaulted Price

An on-chain metric that we haven’t discussed much at TBL is one born from Glassnode’s Cointime Economics framework, written by on-chain GOATs David Puell and James Check. The metric is called the Vaulted Price...

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