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TBL Thinks: The Tariff-Man Cometh

Chandni Bhatia and Nik Bhatia

Aug 29

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Dear Readers,

It’s Thinking Time! Buckle up for a quick recap of global events. This week we cover Lyn Alden’s newsletter from August 24th, wherein she writes about the impact of tariffs on the US consumer. We relate her analysis to what is happening in interest rates in different parts of the curve.

TBL Thinks is our way to summarize the most important paywalled, longer reads relevant to global macroeconomics, helping you cut through the noise. With that in mind, please enjoy.

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Brace Yourself for Increased Prices

Tariffs are a tax on the consumer, but to what extent? Price pressures remain, started by a global supply chain crisis and continued thanks to a global political reordering. Inflation is the direct contributor to fixed income pricing, but monthly CPI and ISM prices paid subindexes fail to capture what comes next, only what is happening now. Inflation metrics tell us that consumers haven’t yet felt the pain, while producers are quicker to respond in the surveys.

In our habit of starting with price first, the yield curve is telling us different stories in 2s, 10s, and 30s. In 2s, the story is that rate cuts will resume, and the policy rate will return to the 3-handle sooner than late. Tens tell an evolving story, one that is somewhat leaning to a world without 2% inflation targeting. The long end of the curve (30s) floats around 5%, almost pegged to it for much of 2025. We find it notable that all of this price action sees stocks near all-time highs...

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