Dear Readers,
Welcome back to another edition of Mean Median Mode—a quantitative risk report summarizing bitcoin price analysis and global macro narratives to position investors and bitcoin watchers with the data that matters. So, without further ado, here’s our latest risk report.
Bitcoin: Technical Analysis
TBL Liquidity Analysis
Bitcoin: Correlation Analysis
Bitcoin: On-Chain Analytics
US Rates Analysis
Fed Watch
Money Market Analysis
US Economy Analysis
This extended $75k–$110k range has caused some to wonder if the bull run is exhausted. But what if the on-chain evidence tells a totally different story? Join James Check (Checkmate of Checkonchain) and Connor Dolan for a data-driven discussion on what a maturing bitcoin market means for the road ahead. James will break down:
Institutions reshaping the cycle: ETF flows and institutional allocator demand setting higher floors
Chopsolidation: why time-pain in the $75k–$110k range signals resilience, not exhaustion
Conviction on display: heavy distributions absorbed while long-term holders remain in control
On-chain metrics show bitcoin has crossed the Rubicon—from a nascent store of value into a true institutional-grade asset class. This session will help you understand what that means for this bull market and beyond—and how you might position yourself appropriately.
Tuesday, September 30th at 3PM CT — online, free to attend.
Register now for early access to a new on-chain metrics report from Unchained and Checkonchain:
Register Here
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Bitcoin price made a strong recovery over the weekend. While weekend volatility often gets faded, this time the recovery held its ground. Although the zones haven’t changed much over the last two weeks, the technical setup has.
‘Septembear’ turned into ‘Sendtember’ with a 5.3% gain. More importantly, price action now resembles a shift from the downtrend that began on August 17th, marked by a bearish engulfing candle, towards a potential uptrend.
Yesterday’s 3-Day candle closed with a bullish engulfing pattern, avoiding further deterioration toward a lower low near the $105,000 area. An engulfing candle simply means that bulls or bears not only recover the ground they lost, but also gain additional ground. These patterns often signal strength or weakness. In this case, the bullish engulfing close signals strength: bulls regained lost territory and pushed beyond it.
Let’s look more closely at what happened over the last two weeks. We identified two important low timeframe levels that bitcoin needed to reclaim in order to invalidate further downside. After hitting $108,000 at the end of August, price recovered to $117,000, where it was rejected. We’ll see in the next chart why that likely happened.
The real test came again last week around $109,000.
Was the $117,000 move just a lower high, pointing toward a lower low near $105,000 and a continuation of the downtrend—or would the bulls step in to prevent that? The market staged a quick recovery, forming an inverted “Bart Simpson” pattern, which is typical for bitcoin. Bulls regained the $113,000 area, and price action now shows a clean gain, retest, and continuation above that level.
As discussed in earlier reports, the volume profile showed a High Volume Node around $117,000, which we flagged as potential resistance. Price is now gearing up for another attempt to break through this level. If it succeeds—whether on this try or the next—it would signal that the bulls aren’t ready to pack their bags just yet, but instead want another shot at the ‘price discovery’ zone.
Over the last three months, we’ve seen several liquidation events. This occurs when trading accounts don’t have enough collateral to withstand a drawdown, causing the exchange to liquidate their open positions. What’s often even more impactful than the liquidations themselves are the stop-loss orders triggered during the process. Many traders place stops on their positions to avoid liquidation, and when price hits those levels, they’re forced out of the market.
In July, this dynamic fueled a short squeeze, where forced buyers (short sellers covering positions) drove the price to new highs. In August and September, however, we saw long squeezes, as leveraged longs were forced to sell to exit their positions.
Currently, we’re seeing the beginnings of a minor short squeeze, helping push price higher. On an aggregated basis, the swap market (perpetual futures across exchanges like Binance, Bybit, Deribit, and Hyperliquid) looks fairly balanced. The aggregated funding rate sits at 0.0072%, or 7.9% annualized, which is not unusual. The aggregated premium is negative, meaning bitcoin spot prices are higher than swap prices. This run-up looks healthy: it’s less about excessive long exposure and more about shorts being washed out.
In our last Mean Median Mode report (just two weeks ago), our TBL Liquidity indicator was still in the works. Then came one of our latest pivotal pieces last Friday, where we quantitatively defined our indicator.
At last, a way to use our TBL Liquidity Index to detect buys and sells in risk assets throughout the year (chart below):...
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