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The Macroeconomy Seeks Productivity

Thinking about bitcoin's path to getting marked on the global balance sheet.

Nik Bhatia

Nov 11

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Dear Readers,

Macroeconomic research becomes difficult when one is bogged down with politics. Importantly, infighting in Washington distracts from the long-term vision for the country, evidenced by funding measures that only truly fund government operations for another few months. Wall Street falls victim to a similar magnet, as quarterly earning reports dominate man hours amongst C-suite executives that could be spent more productively.

Productivity — this is the true name of the game and what the macroeconomy is seeking. If we can all produce more with the same, or the same with less, wealth can grow for everyone, not just for those who already possess the wealth. The more time I spend analyzing markets and developing concepts around TBL Liquidity, the more I ponder the stock of global wealth and its capacity to finance the rollover of debt. Today, we imagine the next chapter in wealth and productivity.

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Much is made of the $300 trillion debt stock and its quarterly update from the IIF, now settling in at $338 trillion. This means that there are $338 trillion in outstanding loans, with $338 trillion in assets, namely accounts receivable in some form (future principal and interest payments), on the balance sheets of banks, governments, households, and corporations. The most delightful part of this eye-watering number is that the borrowers are also banks, governments, households, and corporations. In other words, the debt all cancels out on a global balance sheet.

What does that mean for us as analysts thinking about global wealth? It tells us that debt assets are not real wealth. They are paper wealth. This includes the entire bond market, including the godparent asset class of this research firm, U.S. Treasuries.

If bonds are not real wealth because they net out on the global balance sheet, then what is real wealth?...

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