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Bitcoin Stabilize But Macro Risk Is Quietly Rising

Forced selling is behind us, now the Fed will decide whether the next move is up or down.

Ecoinometrics

Dec 8

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The forced-selling loop in Bitcoin ETFs, outflows leading to lower prices leading to more outflows, appears to be behind us. Price action has stabilized, signalling the liquidation phase has largely run its course.

But that alone doesn’t guarantee a recovery. The next major swing factor is the macro backdrop, and this week’s FOMC meeting matters more than usual. If the Fed reinforces the path to rate cuts, Bitcoin gets room to rebuild momentum. If not, stabilization could give way to another downturn.

So today we take stock of where macro conditions actually stand and measure the probability of another leg lower using a data-driven model.

Let’s dig into the data.

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Bitcoin Stabilizes But Macro Risk Is Quietly Rising

The Takeaway

Bitcoin has stabilized now that the ETF liquidation loop has run its course, but a full recovery depends on the macro environment.

Growth equities have slowed without breaking down and gold inflows have stalled, signalling caution rather than a clear shift to risk-on or risk-off...