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Insider Selling and the 'QE vs Not QE' Debate: A Collaboration with Checkonchain

James Check (Checkmatey), Augustine Carrasco, and Nik Bhatia

Dec 18

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Dear Readers,

We are joined once again by the Checkonchain team to discuss some more bitcoin and macro dynamics. As per usual, we will let the Checkonchain analysis open up the article, and we will close it with our analysis.

Don’t forget to show the Checkonchain team some love by subscribing to their newsletter—they are always on point with the latest in bitcoin:

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So, without further ado, let’s dive in!

Was 2025 just underwhelming, or did bitcoin quietly lay the groundwork for an extended bull run?

On December 17 at 1 PM CST, Conner Brown, James Lavish, and Preston Pysh join
Unchained for a high-signal breakdown of the forces that defined bitcoin this year.

They’ll cover:

How 2025’s macro and liquidity shifts reshaped bitcoin’s market footing
The policy developments in Washington that carried the most weight
What this year’s inflection points reveal about bitcoin’s long-term direction

If you want clarity on what 2025 really meant for bitcoin—and how to think about the road ahead—this is the event.

Wednesday, Dec 17 at 1 PM CST — online, free to attend.

Secure your Bitcoin this holiday. 21% off all Blockstream Jade devices.

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Before we keep going with the article, we want to wish everyone some Happy Holidays!

We want to show the world everything we’ve built this year for our TBL Pro members, and give you the chance to get full access at a 40% discount on annual subscriptions through Christmas.

As a TBL Pro member, you’ll get access to:

A Liquidity-Driven Framework That Helps You Gauge Risk-Asset Movements
A Brand-New Live Research Dashboard
Continuous Intelligence Articles

On Behalf of the TBL Team, Happy Holidays!

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If you are currently a TBL Pro member and want to take advantage of this offer, cancel your current subscription and resubscribe to redeem this discount.

G’day Folks,

One of my favourite one-liners is how often ‘we don’t see the narratives on Twitter playing out in the data’.

Everyone has an opinion on everything, creating an endless stream of catchy narratives, which get boosted by the social media algorithms. More often than not, these algorithms tend to amplify small factors which are easy to put a label on (those dastardly whales suppressing the price!), but tend to miss the dominant factors which are usually more pedestrian and unexciting (a lot of people sold coins).

This is why we’re very pleased to be back with another collaborative report alongside our friends at The Bitcoin Layer, to help our readers cut through the noise.

As we head into 2026, there are plenty of narratives circulating out there, which can make it hard to set up our expectations for the year that is coming. From my perspective, there are a bunch of ideas I am currently thinking through:

Bitcoin has decoupled from other risk assets…only to the downside…the US dollar index is down, gold and precious metals are up, and equities are a stone’s throw from their ATHs…what gives?!
The Fed rate-cutting cycle continues, and they are now buying $40B in Treasury Bills per month. This should be good for liquidity, right?…yet Bitcoin is still trading so weak…
Doing the narrative circuit this week is a widely circulated piece by Jeff Park, which suggests the reason the Bitcoin price isn’t higher is that lots of OG sellers have sold covered calls on Deribit, which is effectively capping the price. Are options really the source of Bitcoin’s weak performance?
Is this drawdown a correction or the start of a more serious bear market? If the latter, how low might we go, and how long could it take to resolve?

Today’s post will provide our perspectives on these topics, amongst many others. Our goal is to help our subscribers focus in on the narratives that have a strong data-driven evidence base backing them up.

2026 is already shaping up to be an interesting year, so we want to head into it as clear-minded and level-headed as we can.

📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.

Premium Members will find the TL:DR summary, video update and the rest of the written post below. Consider upgrading to premium today to unlock the rest of the content!

Disclaimer: This article is general in nature, and is for informational, and entertainment purposes only, and it shall not be relied upon for any investment or financial decisions.

🎄 Christmas Note: For December, the Checkonchain team does a briefer bullet list of key insights alongside video post, rather than a full write-up. This gives us a chance to recharge our own batteries before the new year kicks in.
We wish all of our respective subscribers at Checkonchain and The Bitcoin Layer a very Merry Christmas and a happy New Year.
Enjoy the holidays, take plenty of time away from the charts, and we’re already looking forward to what will no doubt be an exciting year ahead.

Market Update Summary...

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