Dear Readers,
DefinitionsDepending on who you ask today, bitcoin is either in the early stages of a new bull market, or already on its way into a bear market. Both sides are looking at the same asset, the same chart, the same macro landscape yet arriving at very different conclusions. That’s not necessarily because one side is “wrong”, but because they’re using different frameworks, timeframes, and triggers. In this letter, we walk through how we think about bull and bear market definitions, where current on-chain and trend metrics place bitcoin today. Along the way, we’ll unpack what sits underneath key constructs like the Active Investors Cost Basis, why these are ultimately just numbers and how to use them as signal without turning any single level into something sacred.
Was 2025 just underwhelming, or did bitcoin quietly lay the groundwork for an extended bull run? On December 17 at 1 PM CST, Conner Brown, James Lavish, and Preston Pysh join They’ll cover:
If you want clarity on what 2025 really meant for bitcoin—and how to think about the road ahead—this is the event. Wednesday, Dec 17 at 1 PM CST — online, free to attend.
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While it’s good to get other perspectives and opinions, make sure to adjust that information to your own framework before jumping to a conclusion.
Please also note that we’ve drawn the same zones in this chart as in the first one. We wanted to show where these numbers are coming from. These zones are based on the True Market Mean. As we explain later on in this letter, the True Market Mean could also be called the “Active Investors Realized Price.” Previously, we used the standard deviation bands of the Short-Term Holder MVRV as boundaries for different zones, but as we pointed out in the most recent risk report, Mean Median Mode, because the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis is derived from the most recent 155 days, it can move relatively strongly. That makes it more suitable for marking (or, in our case, confirming) a trend, and less suitable for expressing value.
Before we keep going with the article, we want to wish everyone some Happy Holidays! We want to show the world everything we’ve built this year for our TBL Pro members, and give you the chance to get full access at a 40% discount on annual subscriptions through Christmas. As a TBL Pro member, you’ll get access to:
On Behalf of the TBL Team, Happy Holidays! If you are currently a TBL Pro member and want to take advantage of this offer, cancel your current subscription and resubscribe to redeem this discount. Triggers versus Context...Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer to unlock the rest.Become a paying subscriber of The Bitcoin Layer to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. A subscription gets you:
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Wednesday, December 10, 2025
No Holy Levels
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