Polymarket's Top 2026 Predictions gm Bankless Nation,
It's prediction season, and Polymarket users are staking their major bets on what the new year will bring. Today's Issue ⬇️ - 🗣️ Analysis: Ten Polymarket Predictions for 2026
Chronicling the most popular predictions for the new year.
Sponsor: Uniswap CCA — Fair onchain price discovery for token launches. . . . ANALYSIS What Prediction Market Users are Predicting for 2026 Prediction markets got their mainstream moment in 2025. While the use case got its major validation during the 2024 U.S. general election, it was cemented in 2025 when regulatory clarity unlocked a new wave of novel prediction markets (namely those centered around sports gambling). While you've likely already been inundated by what your favorite podcasters, writers, and influencers are predicting for the future, today we're turning to top prediction market events for 2026 to see what the hive mind of bettors believe will go down in the new year. Here are ten Polymarket bets worth watching as we prepare to ring in the new year. 👇 1️⃣ FIFA World Cup WinnerThe premier invitational men's soccer (football) tournament will be the largest in tournament history this year, hosting 48 teams with play scattered across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Winning this tournament means navigating an expanded format, surviving a longer path through group and knockout stages, and proving soccer superiority on a global stage with literally billions of people watching. According to Polymarket, Spain is projected as the current favorite to win the World Cup with 16% odds, followed closely by England, France, and Argentina. 2️⃣ Super Bowl ChampionshipSuper Bowl LX will crown the champion of the NFL for the 2025-2026 season on Sunday, February 6, 2026. The biggest single-day sporting event in the United States, the Super Bowl combines elite American football with a cultural spectacle. The Los Angeles Rams rank as the current favorite to win the Super Bowl among bettors on Polymarket, with a 14% chance, followed by the Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, and Denver Broncos. 3️⃣ Nobel Peace Prize WinnerThe Nobel Peace Prize is one of the world’s most prestigious international awards, honoring individuals or organizations that have made outstanding contributions to the promotion of peace. Awarded each December in Oslo, the six Nobel Prizes reflect Alfred Nobel's desire to recognize individuals for outstanding efforts in: physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine, literature, economics, and peace. Laureates are announced in October, and receive a medal, personal diploma, and cash award. With a 19% chance, the International Court of Justice is the current rising favorite on Polymarket to receive the Nobel Peace Prize. U.S. President Donald Trump, The UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees) and Russian political opposition leader Yulia Navalnaya are close behind. 4️⃣ Warner Bros. AcquisitionWarner Bros. is an influential entertainment studio that has shaped popular culture for over a century. Founded in 1923, the studio is behind a number of iconic franchises including: Harry Potter, The Lord of the Rings, Looney Tunes, and Game of Thrones. This month, streaming service Netflix announced that it had entered into an agreement with Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. to acquire the Warner Bros. part of its business – including its film and television studios (HBO Max and HBO) – for approximately $82B in a cash and stock transaction. Although the deal has yet to close and must contend with a hostile takeover bid from competitor Paramount Skydance, the odds that Netflix emerges victorious have settled around 24% in recent weeks. 5️⃣ Highest Grossing MovieThe superlative of the "highest grossing movie" will be awarded to the new film that generated the most revenue at global box offices. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the current leader on Polymarket, with 32% odds that it will win the title of highest grossing movie in 2026. It remains in close contention with The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Avengers: Doomsday. 6️⃣ Fed Rate CutsThe Federal Reserve is believed by some to be the most important financial institution in existence. The institution aims to control the price of money by altering the "Federal Funds" benchmark interest rate. Today, the Fed is targeting overnight interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, but looking ahead to 2026, Polymarket bettors overwhelmingly expect further easing. The highest-probability outcome points to 0.50% in cumulative cuts, though 10% of the bettors still believe the Fed could slash rates by as much as 1.25%. 7️⃣ Balance of PowerFollowing 2024's general election, Republicans took control of both federal legislative chambers (the House and the Senate). American voters will have the opportunity to reshape this balance of power during next year's midterm elections, at which time control over Congress is once again up for grabs. These elections will determine which party sets the legislative agenda, oversees the executive branch, and influences the direction of U.S. policy heading into the next presidential cycle. In 2026, it appears that Americans will seek out change from the current mono-party political regime. The odds of a Democrat sweep now lie at 33%, and markets are assigning a 48% chance that the party reclaims control of the House. 8️⃣ Global TemperatureGlobal temperatures have climbed relentlessly over the past decade, with recent years consistently challenging historical heat records. Against this backdrop, 2026 is shaping up as another critical data point and prediction markets are closely watching to see whether the year will rank among the hottest ever recorded. Polymarket speculators are bracing for even more extreme heat in 2026, assigning a 38% chance that it ranks as the fourth hottest year of all time and a 9% chance that it sets a new record, based on NASA’s Global Land–Ocean Temperature Index. 9️⃣ U.S. RecessionFears of a U.S. recession have loomed large over markets for years. While the economy has so far avoided a hard landing, slowing growth and inflation continue to fuel uncertainty about the durability of persistent economic expansion. In 2026, attention may yet again shift to whether cracks in the economy finally give way to a formal downturn. A recession would have sweeping implications for employment, asset prices, and global markets, making it a central focus as investors look to the future. For now, Polymarket speculators appear relatively optimistic, assigning just a 27% chance to a U.S. recession occurring in 2026. 🔟 Presidential Impeachment Impeachment has become a recurring feature in American politics, and President Donald Trump is no stranger to the process, having been impeached twice as a result of his first term. Whether impeachment resurfaces in 2026 is likely to depend on the balance of power in Congress, the political incentives of lawmakers, and the trajectory of ongoing legal and ethical controversies surrounding Trump. The probability that Donald Trump is impeached by the end of 2026 currently stands at just 16%. With the results of next year’s midterm elections not set to take effect until 2027, those odds appear justified, even in the event of a Democratic sweep. FRIEND & SPONSOR: UNISWAP CCA The Uniswap Continuous Clearing Auction is designed for fair price discovery and onchain liquidity bootstrapping at TGE. Tokens are sold continuously over time, eliminating sniping — and proceeds can seed a Uniswap v4 pool for Day 1 liquidity. | 
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