Dear Readers, It’s Thinking Time! We kick off the first Thinks of this year trying to untangle the complicated geopolitical web our fearless leader weaves in the wake of what’s happening in Venezuela. With the U.S. having conducted airstrikes on militants in Syria, Nigeria, and Yemen, and veiled and direct threats levied against Cuba, Mexico, Iran, and Colombia, the world is watching for what the current administration’s next move will be and which country will be next as Trump vows “American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again.” We also focus in on oil’s central role. TBL Thinks is our way to summarize the most important paywalled, longer reads relevant to global macroeconomics, helping you cut through the noise. With that in mind, please enjoy.
As bitcoin’s role in the global financial landscape evolves, understanding its potential impact on your wealth becomes increasingly crucial. Whether we see measured adoption or accelerated hyperbitcoinization, being prepared for various scenarios can make the difference between merely participating and truly optimizing your position. This is why Unchained developed the Bitcoin Calculator – a sophisticated modeling tool that helps you visualize and prepare for multiple bitcoin futures. Beyond traditional retirement planning, it offers deep insight into how different adoption scenarios could transform your wealth trajectory. What sets this tool apart is its integration with the Unchained IRA – the only solution that combines the tax advantages of a retirement account with the security of self-custody. In any future state, maintaining direct control of your keys remains fundamental to your bitcoin strategy. Step By Step, Left, Right, Left, They All Fall Down?We had all barely gotten over our New Year hangovers when news of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s and his wife’s capture broke. The administration’s capture of Maduro raised questions on whether this really was an anti-drug operation, or a bid to counter China, Russia, and Iran’s influence in Latin America, or if this was all ‘fueled’ by the desire for oil (see what I did there?). News recently broke that Venezuela will be turning over approximately 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S. to be sold at market price and used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the U.S, allegedly. Iran is on serious watch for regime change: On the oil motivations behind the Venezuelan extraction, we are certain that energy, minerals, Russia/China, and the Hemispheric mentality all play a role, but it is difficult to parse exactly what to attribute military action to. Whatever conclusion one might come to, it’s clear that old rules no longer apply, and unhinged policy is only anchored in the 2025 National Security Strategy vision of the world, authored by a combination of Trump’s people, Stephen Miller, Marco Rubio, to a lesser extent Scott Bessent, and most likely a core contingent behind the scenes (elites) and within the military who are calling some of these bigger shots. The old rules are out. That’s your best bet to preparing for 2026’s geopolitical calendar, and the NSS (TBL’s summary) is your informative base, love it or vehemently hate it.
Niall Ferguson put the administration’s decision regarding Venezuela in perspective here, which helps give background to the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, turning back the clock of American foreign policy and forcing us to dust off our U.S early history. As explained here, the document sets down four guidelines which relate to Venezuela:... Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer to unlock the rest.Become a paying subscriber of The Bitcoin Layer to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. A subscription gets you:
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Thursday, January 8, 2026
TBL Thinks: What's Next After Venezuela?
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