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The Hidden Oil Network Powering the World’s Conflicts

How a hidden armada of oil tankers is breaking the sanctions system

Demian Schatt and Nik Bhatia

Jan 15

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Dear Readers,

It’s Thinking Time! As U.S. forces just seized another oil tanker linked to Venezuela, this week’s TBL Thinks looks at a system most people have never heard of but that now sits at the center of global geopolitics. The shadow fleet, a parallel oil market that keeps sanctioned regimes funded outside the Western financial system.

TBL Thinks is our way to summarize the most important paywalled, longer reads relevant to global macroeconomics, helping you cut through the noise. With that in mind, please enjoy.

The cracks in the foundations of money are becoming harder to ignore. Persistent deficits, rising debt, and central bank behavior are quietly reshaping how investors think about preservation and risk.

On January 28 at 1PM CST, James Lavish joins Unchained for a live conversation on currency debasement, why traditional portfolio assumptions are being tested, and how gold and bitcoin fit into a changing monetary landscape.

The discussion will cover:

Why debasement is structural, not cyclical
How inflation and financial repression challenge familiar portfolios
Why gold tends to move first—and bitcoin often moves further

Wednesday, January 28 at 1PM CST — online, free to attend. Register now and get early access to the report:

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The Money That Keeps Sanctioned Regimes Alive

The United States uses sanctions to cut off access to money and limit the resources available to governments it is trying to pressure. By blocking countries from the dollar system, Western banks, and global trade, sanctions are meant to deprive those governments of the revenue they need to fund wars, terror networks, and military buildups.

But in reality, that pressure has been far less effective:

Russia continues to finance its war in Ukraine at scale.
Iran continues to bankroll armed groups across the Middle East.
North Korea continues to build missiles and run global cybercrime networks.
And before U.S. intervention, Venezuela was able to keep exporting oil and generating hard-currency revenue despite heavy sanctions.

According to the U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission, Chinese trade and financial networks have allowed sanctioned states to remain plugged into global markets despite U.S. and multilateral sanctions.

The Shadow Fleet, How the Money Moves

The shadow fleet is a global network of oil tankers used by sanctioned states to keep exporting crude oil outside the reach of Western enforcement. Russia, Iran, and Venezuela rely on these ships to move oil without using Western insurers, Western banks, or Western shipping services, allowing them to keep generating revenue even while cut off from the dollar system. ...

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