The Prediction Market Storm gm Bankless Nation,
Prediction markets are taking the world by storm, and not everyone is happy about that fact. In today's essay for Premium subscribers, David lays out the three central arguments that could determine whether they mature into a durable new financial primitive or get boxed in before they reach their potential. Thanks for being part of the Bankless Nation,
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. . . OPINION The 3 Fights Over Prediction Markets There’s a storm brewing over prediction markets. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have rocketed into mainstream awareness – driven by their knife fight for mindshare, society’s broader trend toward financializing everything, and the simple fact that prediction markets are a genuinely new financial primitive that deserve exploring. Robinhood’s reported earnings last week confirm the growth trajectory that prediction markets are seeing. Annualized revenues from their prediction market products grew from $115M in Q3 to $435M in Q4. These numbers won’t even include the revenue from the Super Bowl and March Madness – those will be Q1 numbers. Less than a year into the product, prediction markets represent 11% of Robinhood's total revenue this quarter. Not everyone is happy about this, but nonetheless the incredible demand so far makes it clear: prediction markets are here to stay, and they're only getting bigger from here. The Incoming FightsNot everyone is happy about this. Prediction markets have their work cut out for them to earn their spot in society – and it's not going to be an easy fight. Prediction markets must overcome three fundamental fights in order to maximize their potential... . . . WHAT YOU MISSED New EF Regime 📈 The Asset🏛️ The Protocol📱 The Apps🤫 The Privacy Stack🐸 The Culture💽 The Tech . . . WEEKLY ROLLUP Has Crypto Lost the Plot? Crypto feels cooked in 2026, and the Super Bowl proves it. Ryan and David unpack Coinbase’s Backstreet Boys rug pull ad and what it reveals about crypto’s collapsed public narrative. Then they dig into the brutal selloff, why IBIT’s record volume hints at forced TradFi liquidation, and what Polymarket is pricing for Bitcoin under $50K. Tune into this week’s Rollup! 👇 FRIEND & SPONSOR: FIGURE Use Figure’s Democratized Prime for your chance to win big with $25k USDC. The more you participate, the better your odds! Every dollar gets you another chance to win $25K USDC. Enter to win while earning 9% yield on your crypto with Democratized Prime*. | 
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