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Are we back yet?

Not yet, but the bid is changing

Johan Bergman

Mar 18

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Sentiment is improving, mainly because bitcoin has been performing relatively well since the war in the Middle East started. Gold pulled back and is currently trading below $5,000 per troy ounce, and the S&P 500 is heading towards the 200-day moving average, which sits at 6612.

There was a post on X from somebody that I don’t recall, and I’m paraphrasing here, but it stated something like:

Gold is being sold at a discount in [enter country under attack in the Middle East] because of its properties

Bitcoin is being sold at a premium in [enter same country] because of its properties

It was a simple but very striking statement. And if you remember one thing from this letter, let it be that statement. Because that right there is the signal.

In the meantime, every former tariff expert on X became a Strait of Hormuz expert who is ‘monitoring the situation’ closely. With Corporate High Yield rates rising and an elevated VIX, the chart looks similar to what it looked like in February 2025 for the S&P 500.

As we all know, oil and natural gas are among the most important commodities in the world. They serve as inputs for a plethora of outputs, from gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, to fertilizers, plastics, and the helium and chemicals essential to semiconductor manufacturing.

So the market is trying to figure out what the impact will be when the situation in the Middle East continues to be a bottleneck for the global economy, or how it can be resolved. They are trying to weigh different scenarios and assign probabilities to them.