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Bitcoin Is Still in a High-Risk Regime

Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Report, March 2026

Ecoinometrics

Mar 25

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Over the past week, the environment around Bitcoin has actually become more complicated, not less.

We’ve had a more cautious Fed, renewed pressure from energy prices, and increasing volatility in equities. And yet, at the same time, Bitcoin has started to stabilize.

That combination is exactly what creates confusion. Because when price stops falling, it’s very tempting to conclude that the market has turned. But that’s not always how these transitions work.

Periods like this, where short-term conditions improve but the broader backdrop remains uncertain, are the hardest to navigate for investors.

So instead of focusing on the latest move, it’s more useful to go back to basics and ask simply what regime are we actually in right now?

That’s where long-term momentum indicators come in. They don’t react quickly. They don’t capture every short-term shift. But they are very effective at telling you whether the underlying trend has truly changed.

And right now, they’re still pointing in the same direction.

Let’s look at the data.

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Bitcoin Is Still in a High-Risk Regime

The Takeaway

Bitcoin has stabilized in recent weeks, but the broader picture has not improved in a decisive way. Long-term momentum remains negative, with both price and on-chain activity still trending lower...