Bitcoin’s five red months: what’s next?Five straight red months have tested conviction — but history shows prolonged weakness often precedes powerful recoveries.
What’s HappeningPrice ActionOver the past couple of weeks in our Weekly Alpha newsletter, we highlighted that after the sharp move down to $60,000, Bitcoin would likely need some time to consolidate and range. That is exactly what has played out.
Figure 1: BTC ranging as we forecasted. The past week has been no different. Price briefly attempted to break out of the range, but the move quickly failed and BTC is now back trading within the same consolidation zone. Overall, Bitcoin is up just 2.8% over the past week. As we mentioned previously, patience is required in conditions like this. After a large directional move, markets often spend time moving sideways as participants digest the move. Attempting to aggressively trade every small move up or down during these phases often leads to getting chopped up in the range. Zooming out, Bitcoin is still holding above key long-term support levels, including the 200 Week Moving Average ($58,672) and Realized Price ($54,457).
Figure 2: BTC remains in a bearish regime for now. However, price remains well below the 1-Year Moving Average, which we use as the key bull/bear regime pivot. Until Bitcoin can reclaim that level, the broader market structure should still be viewed as bearish. The 1-Year Moving Average currently sits at $98,500 and is gradually trending lower.
Bitcoin’s five red months: what’s nextBitcoin has endured a difficult stretch in recent months. The Monthly Returns Heatmap highlights just how challenging the period has been, with the past five consecutive months closing in the red. As a result, Bitcoin is currently down -24.55% for the year, reflecting the pressure that has weighed on the market during this phase of the cycle.
Figure 3: Bitcoin Monthly Returns Heatmap. That recent performance is in sharp contrast to the performance of gold in recent months. Shown below on the Gold monthly returns heatmap:
Figure 4: Gold Monthly Returns Heatmap While short-term performance has been weak relative to Gold, looking at Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategies provides a broader perspective on how Bitcoin has performed relative to other major assets. Over the past three years, a weekly $50 DCA into Bitcoin would have produced a return of around 28–29%, which is roughly the same performance as investing in Apple stock over the same period. However, gold has significantly outperformed, generating a return of about 107.96% during that timeframe.
Figure 5: Past 3 years dollar cost average performance. Extending the horizon further shows a similar pattern. Over the past five years, gold again leads the pack, delivering approximately 142% returns, compared with about 68% for Bitcoin, 51% for Apple, and 31% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Figure 6: Past five years DCA. Much of gold’s recent outperformance appears to be tied to rising geopolitical uncertainty and macro instability, which historically drives demand toward traditional safe-haven assets. However, Bitcoin still possesses characteristics that differentiate it from traditional stores of value. Bitcoin is far easier to move across borders, can be self-custodied, and remains resistant to capital controls. Our view is that this dynamic may not remain static. As geopolitical tensions increase and the importance of property rights and wealth mobility becomes more apparent, the advantages of Bitcoin become increasingly relevant. When that shift in perception occurs, Bitcoin could move from being treated purely as a risk-on asset during periods of panic to being recognised for its unique monetary properties. If that transition takes hold, we would expect demand to return quickly and the price of Bitcoin to snap back to the upside. Want the full picture? Pro members get 200+ exclusive live charts, instant alerts, expert analysis, and weekly reports from our team. Join thousands of Bitcoin investors who’ve stopped guessing. The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team. Bitcoin Magazine Pro
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Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market! Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. We sincerely appreciate your support and hope you found this content valuable. Please leave a like and let us know your thoughts in the comments section; we always welcome feedback from our audience!
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Monday, March 9, 2026
Bitcoin’s five red months: what’s next?
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