I wanted to start writing this on Sunday night. My gut told me that would be a mistake. Waking up here on Monday, some of last night’s moves have already reversed, and I’m glad I waited.
The price action over the last 72 hours has been whippy, seesawing, hectic in the way that only genuine fear can produce. Oil gapped up at the Asia open, melted higher to $120 within a few hours, and as of this writing is trading around $101. That’s a 15%+ pullback from the highs in a single session. Stocks gapped down hard on Sunday night and bounced this morning. The dollar surged, then gave some of it back. If you’re feeling like you can’t keep up, that’s because the moves are designed to shake you. They always are.
I’m going to walk you through what I’m watching, what I think it means, and why one market’s silence is telling me more than another market’s noise.
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