Stop Trying To Buy The Exact Bitcoin BottomFrom MVRV to ATR ranges, the evidence points to wide accumulation windows—not single price targets.
Let’s talk about something that’s been frustrating me a little lately. The comments, the messages, the social media threads, all variations of the same thing. “I’m waiting for the CVDD.” “I’m not buying until we hit the 200-week moving average.” “I’ll go all-in at exactly $x.” Stop it. Not because those levels aren’t worth watching, they are, and we’ve covered them in depth. But this kind of thinking, waiting for one precise number before doing anything, is how people end up either missing the bottom entirely or convincing themselves to stay on the sidelines while the market quietly turns. Investing isn’t binary. Analysis is probabilistic. And the data, when you look at it properly, makes a compelling case that thinking in exact price targets is the wrong framework entirely. Dollar-Cost Averaging Dollar Cost Average Strategies get talked about so often that it’s almost become background noise. But it’s worth actually looking at what it has delivered, because the numbers for this baseline strategy are genuinely remarkable. Cast your mind back eight years. Bitcoin was around $9,000 and around a 50% retracement from the peak, maybe not too dissimilar to where we are now. If you had simply started dollar-cost averaging from that point, buying consistently through every swing, every panic, every “this time it’s different” headline, the outcome would have been extraordinary. Massively outperforming equities and even gold over a period when gold itself went exponential. The ups and downs, the turbulence and the chop, none of it changed the outcome meaningfully, because the strategy never required you to be right on any single day.
Figure 1: A dollar-cost averaging strategy with Bitcoin has outperformed other asset classes over an 8-year period. The Data Says… The MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin’s current market value to the aggregate cost basis of every coin in circulation, then standardises that against Bitcoin’s historical volatility. In plain terms, it tells you how far the current price sits from what the average Bitcoin investor paid. When that gap closes to near zero, or goes negative, it has historically marked genuine capitulation territory, the kind where the majority of the market is sitting at a loss and selling pressure begins to exhaust itself.
Figure 2: The reliable MVRV Z-Score adds strategic weight to a simple DCA approach. Right now, we’re not at those extreme readings, but we’re not far from them either. The data suggests we’re considerably closer to a bottom than to a cycle top. That’s not a guarantee; markets can always push further in either direction, but as a probabilistic statement, the on-chain evidence indicates that accumulation at current levels is more than rational compared to waiting on the sidelines.
Measuring Against Commodities If you measure Bitcoin not against the US dollar, a currency that loses purchasing power every year, but against a comparable asset that people actually rotate capital between, you get a more honest picture of where we stand. The Bitcoin-to-silver ratio is one of the more instructive ways to do this. Silver is a genuinely comparable target in terms of the market cap Bitcoin could realistically challenge within the next cycle or two, and the next obvious target before going for gold, making it a cleaner benchmark than gold at its current scale.
Figure 3: Measured in terms of silver, Bitcoin’s current retracement ranks amongst the worst. By this measure, the current drawdown already ranks as one of the worst bear markets in Bitcoin’s history in relative terms. That context matters because it tells you something about where we are in the cycle beyond just the dollar price. The Data On Perfect Timing A couple of years ago, I ran an analysis across the entire Bitcoin blockchain; every active wallet, every address that had accumulated and spent Bitcoin across a full market cycle. The question was straightforward: how many wallets actually managed to buy the cycle low and sell the cycle high? The answer was one. A single wallet. Out of every Bitcoin address on the network, 0.000016% managed to execute that perfectly, buying at the 2018 bear market lows and selling at the 2021 bull market peak. Let me know if you think it’s worth running the analysis again for the most recent cycle!
Figure 4: Only one wallet managed to buy at precisely the 2018 bear market low and sell at the 2021 bull market peak. You’re not going to be that wallet. Neither am I. And more importantly, trying to be is an active risk; it’s what keeps people in cash through an entire accumulation window waiting for a number that may never come, or comes and goes in hours while they deliberate. Where The Real Opportunity Lives So if perfect timing is essentially impossible, what’s the actual framework? The Average True Range (ATR) analysis answers this directly. Rather than measuring cycle lows and highs in fixed percentage terms, which gets distorted as Bitcoin’s volatility diminishes over successive cycles, the ATR approach scales with how volatile the asset actually is at any given moment in its history. It defines a realistic accumulation zone around a cycle low and a realistic distribution zone around a cycle high, adjusted for where we are in Bitcoin’s maturation.
Figure 5: Bitcoin’s ATR metric brings market volatility into the frame. What the data shows across every cycle is consistent: bottoms are far more accessible than tops. In the 2018 bear market, there were 125 separate days where you could have bought within a three-ATR range of the cycle low, compared to just 33 days near the top. In the prior cycle, even with an unusual double peak inflating the selling window, there were still 71 separate days to buy within range of the bottom. More impressively, if you scaled in and accumulated during any one of these bottoming opportunities, with a scale-in price at the upper boundary of the ATR range, and sold at the approximate topping range of the next cycle, you’d have made over 84% of the total gains available to you if you went all-in at the exact bottom. Closing Thoughts The data across every Bitcoin cycle points to the same conclusion. The bottoming window is wide, accessible, and far more forgiving than the topping window. Dollar-cost averaging through a recognized accumulation zone, informed by on-chain data, historical ATR ranges, and cycle positioning, isn’t settling for second best. It’s the rational, evidence-based approach that has outperformed almost every other strategy across Bitcoin’s entire history. For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Why You Should Stop Trying To Buy The Bitcoin Bottom  Matt Crosby Director of Research & Analytics Bitcoin Magazine Pro
For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else. We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload. Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:
Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market! Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. We sincerely appreciate your support and hope you found this content valuable. Please leave a like and let us know your thoughts in the comments section; we always welcome feedback from our audience!
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Friday, March 27, 2026
Stop Trying To Buy The Exact Bitcoin Bottom
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