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Rivers of Babylon

Capital is flowing into bitcoin

Johan Bergman

Apr 15

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Over the last few months, we’ve been building a framework to assess which state bitcoin is currently in. As many readers know by now, we assess this through two lenses: valuation and trend.

The launch of TBL Pulse sped up the process of writing and publishing about the concept and the framework. It’s important to note that we took the approach to publish and keep building in parallel. We could have kept the framework and charts on the drawing table until we got sound results. But that could take months or even years, and in the meantime, the influences on bitcoin could have changed, forcing us to make changes and start over.

We took this approach to show what we have so far, which brings the signal to you while it’s still fresh. But this also implies that we are fine-tuning and changing the framework on the fly.

In today’s letter, I’m going to write about some of the findings and the framework, but this explanation is needed for you to understand that we are dealing with a lot of trade-offs. With some of these trade-offs, there isn’t a clear winner. We want you to be on board and engaged in the development of this framework, and that is why we wanted to lay out one of these trade-offs.