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Bitcoin's $58,000 Bounce Is Real but the Options Market Won't Confirm It

Lower leverage, modest yields, and a market that quietly gave up on faces getting ripped

Johan Bergman

Jul 8

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Not Convinced

Six months. That is how long bitcoin has now spent in the Winter Zone, the coldest band of our AVIV framework and the one where nothing much happens on the surface. The tourists have left, the timelines have gone quiet, and price keeps grinding sideways. Price bounced off $58,000 and clawed its way back into the range, which on its own looks promising. The bulls even have a clean checklist now to prove that winter is over.

The problem is that the options market keeps looking over its shoulder. Skew is drifting back toward puts, the bearish positioning has rolled from June into August, and the yield on offer has quietly gone modest. This letter walks that gap. We look at the levels price needs to reclaim, what the skew and put/call ratios are really saying, how leverage compares to the 2022 bottom, and whether the yields still pay you for the risk.