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Bitcoin to pass MMFs

ETF demand has reset the game. It's time to elevate expectations.

Nik Bhatia

Mar 14

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Dear readers,

When I first understood bitcoin, I panicked. That’s because I didn’t own any. Unease originated from my mathematical understanding that if bitcoin achieves adoption as global neutral money, bitcoin would trend to about $1 million, or around $20 trillion in market cap. At the time, Treasury supply was trending toward $20 trillion, and the size of the financial system plus real estate totaled several hundred trillion dollars.

Over the past few days of observing bitcoin ETF inflows and doing some more rough calculations, I now realize how easily bitcoin will approach my original estimates. Put on your prediction goggles.

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When moon, sir?

Staggering inflows have altered my assumptions on bitcoin’s price path. It’s important to note that today’s predictions are not explicitly for this year or this cycle. Rather, I’m not sure how bitcoin’s cycles will resemble the shape of past ones now that we are in this “connected pipes” regime.

By connected pipes, I’m referring to IBIT, FBTC, and all the other ETF vehicles which are now available to not only the masses but also the banking system that relies on electronic shares as collateral for activity. In a riveting realization yesterday courtesy of Caitlin Long, bitcoin ETF shares themselves are now being circulated as collateral throughout the financial system. I can’t even begin to explain how important this is for the long-term adoption of bitcoin as superior financial property to every asset aside from US Treasuries, until bitcoin one day replaces US Treasuries as the world’s ultimate asset...