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Mean Median Mode: Goodbye 2025, Hello 2026

Our bi-weekly quantitative risk report for TBL Pros: December 17th, 2025 Edition

Augustine Carrasco, Nik Bhatia, Demian Schatt, and Johan Bergman

Dec 17

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Dear Readers,

Welcome back to another edition of Mean Median Mode—a quantitative risk report summarizing bitcoin price analysis and global macro narratives to position investors and bitcoin watchers with the data that matters. So, without further ado, here’s our latest risk report.

Bitcoin: Technical Analysis
TBL Liquidity Analysis
Bitcoin: Correlation Analysis
Bitcoin: On-Chain Analytics
US Rates Analysis
Fed Watch & Money Markets

Was 2025 just underwhelming, or did bitcoin quietly lay the groundwork for an extended bull run?

On December 17 at 1 PM CST, Conner Brown, James Lavish, and Preston Pysh join
Unchained for a high-signal breakdown of the forces that defined bitcoin this year.

They’ll cover:

How 2025’s macro and liquidity shifts reshaped bitcoin’s market footing
The policy developments in Washington that carried the most weight
What this year’s inflection points reveal about bitcoin’s long-term direction

If you want clarity on what 2025 really meant for bitcoin—and how to think about the road ahead—this is the event.

Wednesday, Dec 17 at 1 PM CST — online, free to attend.

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Bitcoin: Technical Analysis

Nik’s Analysis

What an interesting time for the bitcoin price, bumping above, below, and hugging some support levels amidst a bearish wave of sentiment. Looking holistically at the bitcoin price action will require some zooming out and taking it back to fundamentals.
In a bull market, one wants to see a trend that holds, and as a byproduct, higher lows and higher highs. The April low was $74,000, while the November low was $80,000. This is a signal that we must respect. On the trendline, bitcoin did not hold its 2023 SEC case linearly, and while it attempts to regain, the failure to do so over a three-week span means that the trend could be over.
That forces us to draw a new trend, one that simply connects 2025 lows. Others might choose to only chart the flag, but we are looking for context. Extracting signal from this, we expect any break of the $81,000 area to be a threatening prospect for bitcoin bulls.
On the upside, a mere $95,000 target would pave the way for another charge at $108,000, at which point bears and profit takers will likely return in droves. The broad challenge for bitcoin remains the strength in EUR, which seems to be hitting bitcoin the most, as a weak dollar generally contributes positively to bitcoin prices. You might not jump to conclusions from the falling crude oil price, but global economic weakness could be underpinning weak energy markets and stunting sentiment and investor demand.

Technical watchers will want to see this week’s RSI finish higher than during the third week of November as evidence that bearish momentum is fading on a weekly basis. Currently, it sits at 37 versus 35 during November.

Johan’s Analysis:...

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